Continuing the theme of several recent letters, what does Carl’s theory really come down to, in terms of having a message of benefit to the science community? It means that scientists involved in studies of climate change should stand ready to set aside their addiction to the doctrine of Svante Arrhenius and to the principles of the Claudius-Clayperon equation. Both of these were products of 19th century science, based on the very best of knowledge available at the time. As you well know, an incredible amount of new information has accumulated since those times. None of it should be avoided just because it doesn’t sound right in the light of (relatively) ancient, tightly-held dogmas. This is exactly what has happened in the case of water vapor and its alter-ego, precipitable water (PW). Arrhenius and Claudius both stand in the way of scientists who should be making painstaking studies of these things based on all of the new information that is available and could be relevant. I am urging them to get started.
My studies insist on recognizing the fact that large concentrations of water vapor are transported from the surface to the upper part of the troposphere every day. This does not mean much of anything when it occurs inside the tropical belt, which collects by far the largest amount of vapor. This vapor does not go very far. It soon condenses and rains out. Off to the sides, where the lesser part ends up, things get more interesting. Concentrations that form into discrete streams as they rise are now moving laterally, in a direction that generally takes them from west to east and toward higher geographical latitudes, for as long as they hold together. Condensation and rain-out still shorten their lives, but not with high speed and consistent regularity. Meteorologists know all about these concentrated streams because of their movement and precipitation power, yet they show little interest in any greenhouse energy effects that may be generated by these concentrations as they move about and decline in volume. That’s not their specialty, and they have found other ways to predict temperature changes quite well by employing computer programs.
Climate scientists do have a great interest in cloud formation in all parts of the atmosphere as they seek better ways to measure the cloud albedo effects, but much less interest in measuring or just checking out any special greenhouse energy effects that might be emanating from these higher levels. The “heat dome” ideas now in vogue make no mention of the greenhouse. There are studies of “atmospheric rivers” made of PW concentrations of larger than usual volume, but these also shy away from greenhouse topics. There is no systematic study that I know of seeking in-depth analysis of the various causes of all different kinds of daily temperature anomalies. Close perusal of the daily weather maps shows that every anomaly (outside of the tropical belt) is in fact connected to events transpiring in the upper portion of the troposphere, where PW concentrations are always forming or dissipating, The result on any given day can be measured as a single point on a scale of considerable magnitude, which can then be applied toward determining the amount of greenhouse energy being added to that which separately resides in the lower part of the troposphere.
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Carl