Climate Letter #1994

North America has its own version of the Persian Gulf, creating exactly the same kind of effects on land temperatures directly to the north. The Gulf of California is positioned at almost the same latitude as the Persian Gulf, is about as long but not as wide, probably deeper on average, and a few degrees cooler on the surface. It is just now reaching peak seasonal temperatures following the customary summer warmup, and that means a peak rate of evaporation. In common with the Persian, the skies above are clear and there is apparently nothing that can stop freshly evaporated vapors from rising up and moving about over surrounding land areas, which are normally desert-like in terms of dryness. We are just now seeing the first major signs of absolute overheating in an area composed of pieces of northern Mexico, southeastern California and southwestern Arizona, where maximum temperatures are all in the 45C area, or 113F:

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Surface water temperature in the northern part of the gulf looks like it is reaching up to 33C, or about a degree warmer than anything in the Gulf of Mexico.  On this map the latter appears to have no rivals among the same or larger bodies of open water anywhere in the world at this time of year:

Here is how the cloud map looks around the Gulf of Calofornia. The Gulf of Mexico is also of interest because of the way it is split between clear sky and heavy rainfall, with nothing much in between—which is not at all unusual, but does make you wonder about how so large a division sets up in the first place and what makes the breaking point so very sharp in the places where it occurs that way:

Now for a look at precipitable water (PW) readings. We know exactly where the high concentrations that are seen over land are coming from, their patterns of distribution, and how distribution becomes limited as concentrations gradually erode. When the sky is unclouded the highest concentrations are typically seen squarely superimposed over areas of highest surface temperatures.  This cannot be a coincidence that occurs over and over by mere accident, so we need to look for a cause-and-effect relationship.  This is no problem for anyone who has mastered an understanding of the greenhouse effect of PW, as described by Carl’s theory. The power of this effect is most vividly expressed in the absence of rain clouds, which have powers just as great—but in this case as coolants. Ironically, high concentrations of PW favor high levels of both of these powers, but with remarkable inconsistency in the case of just one of them, the coolants. The current Gulf of California example, like that we just visited in the Persian Gulf, is a vivid expression of what happens when incoming sunlight is unblocked.

Carl

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