What is the average lifetime of precipitable water (PW) molecules after they enter one of the upper level wind systems? This is possibly the most critical question of all relevant to the analysis initiated in Friday’s letter. Every molecule should continuously contribute to the greenhouse energy effect as long as it is up there. I think each one will stay up there until something causes its removal, most likely through precipitation, which means it must first become part of a chunk of matter that s heavy enough to fall. This requires condensation with other molecules in more than one step, beginning with tiny droplets followed by formation of larger particles. Condensation by itself, without precipitating, does not seem to make no significant difference in the total greenhouse effect of this assembly of molecules. Bottom line, adding 10% to the average lifetime of this PW should add something like 10% to the amount of energy transmitted, but that’s not the whole story. We still need to consider the way the molecules move.
Do these molecules ever stop moving forward? The only conclusion I can come to is probably not, except when they run into something that either slows or stops their progress. Simply slowing down makes it likely that precipitation processes will begin, because of the way these molecules tend to gather into concentrated streams that flow continuously from their points of origin. You can watch this happen by visiting the animation website at http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php, and then take a good look at how the entire journey of each stream unfolds. Any matter within the stream that slows down will be in the way of bits that are coming on from behind. Some of these should be able to pass on through while others collide. Presumably, little bits of foreign matter are also involved, being required as nuclei for condensation, so they must be in good supply and part of the full picture.
Condensation that leads to precipitation occurs in steps, with tiny droplets coming first, followed by formation of larger particles. This is not something we are ready to study for current purposes. We are only interested in oncoming molecules that do not stop to condense, or are at least able to bypass the rest of them and keep on moving. The imagery gives us the impression that this regularly goes on, and should extend the lifetime of these molecules until another slowdown is encountered. The same kind of selection process is likely to be repeated, again reducing the number of molecules that survive and keep on moving. We must not forget that those that do keep moving always have a natural tendency to do so in the direction of the pole. The number that actually succeed in reaching the pole, or just entering the heart of the polar zone, will always be greatly reduced from those that began the journey. The ones that make it will bring with them greenhouse energy capability they began with, per molecule, but now that capability will be effectively magnified because of its relationship to the relatively small number of molecules already in place. Low-atmosphere PW molecules in the high latitudes have major supply limitations to begin with, and those that exist have little inclination to move around.
The overall picture that emerges is that the average lifetime for all PW (or water vapor) molecules that enter the upper level of the atmosphere is subject to the average number of slowdown incidents they will face as they travel through the zone. The same result should occur if the typical incident is a little less potent than normal, or if the incidents that do occur are less effectively located in relation to the actual tracking positions of molecules that are on the move. Jetstream wind formations are understandably responsible for most slowdown incidents, and these winds are notorious for the great variety of ways they can position themselves. How they become organized, and what outcomes to expect as a result, could become a major subject of scientific study some day. Weak winds that are positioned just right may end up being more effective than stronger ones that are not, etc.
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Carl