Climate Letter #1973

Carl’s theory is now reasonably complete as far as major claims and conclusions are concerned. I can already think about some details that need to be added and also expect the theory to need corrections or adjustments here and there. One thing I’ve learned while doing this is that for some reason precipitable water (PW), broadly speaking, is not something that people are curious about. Hardly anyone in the sciences has found any kind of reason for being interested. Water vapor by itself gets a little bit of attention but PW is only rarely mentioned in any context. This leaves me with a responsibility for doing my own critical review, which is difficult when so many things that seem obvious are not even open for debate. Can’t do much about it other than to keep on talking and reviewing.

The theory is focused on just one of PW’s features, its greenhouse energy effect.  The full effect only emerges for explanation purposes following recognition of the way PW’s presence in the atmosphere is divided, which is only to a strictly limited extent.  The great majority of all water vapor emissions remain inside the tropical region for its entire lifetime, in spaces directly above the waters where the bulk of all evaporation occurs.  My theory does not cover this portion because it is not divided into distinct upper and lower zones like those that appear on both sides, to the north or south, beyond the tropical belt. Specific activity that entirely takes place in the upper zones, once it has been recognized, is what should be able to generate a maximum level of interest in the sciences.  PW’s presence in the zones of each hemisphere is divided following the same basic principles, but the events that go on from there are of substantially different character, and so are the outcomes of these events. That means PW’s greenhouse energy effect can show wide variations on the surface temperatures of each hemisphere.  My theory tries to realistically explain how and why these events are so different, usual visual imagery as evidence, and therefore why the outcomes that hang on the course of these events do not match.  I think this is truly groundbreaking sort of effort, allowing no room for quick acceptance, but everyday curiosity should at least be aroused now and then. The theory does offer at least a partial explanation for why the NH has been warming up so fast over the past 30 years while the SH is lagging far behind, now more than ever.

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The final conclusion of Carl’s theory, as drawn up in part 3, is that PW’s greenhouse effect, activated exclusively by events that take place within one level of atmospheric division, has a large share of responsibility for accelerating the pace of climate change. Complete acceleration is only happening in one hemisphere for the time being, which is of small comfort because the one continent where air temperatures are showing stability at this time is uninhabitable. PW’s greenhouse effect does have an impact over most other land regions in the SH, much like in the north, but without the same source of acceleration. The overall impact in the south is otherwise reduced by differences commonly expressed on ocean surfaces, which disproportionately favors the SH with respect to air temperatures but not to subsurface warming, which the theory cannot cover, and is troublesome in its own way.

Carl

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