A new analysis of El Nino events points toward more occurrences of the strong type (Nature). From this study we can learn quite a bit about the two different types of both El Nino and La Nina events, based largely on where they are centered. and how they develop. What is new from this study is that under global warming conditions the requirements needed for a strong type of El Nino are enhanced in ways not captured by current models. This type, which includes the one most recently experienced, could return more frequently and stronger in the event of further warming.
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A new report stresses the importance of making more efficient use of Earth’s limited amount of agricultural land. The contribution of current inefficient usage to rising CO2 levels is considerably greater than represented in current data, which raises its importance relative to that of burning fossil fuels. There are plentiful opportunities for reversing that situation, which focus mainly on making changes in what we consume and on promoting more efficient methods of production. From the report’s conclusion, “We find that these choices can have much greater implications for the climate than previously understood because standard methods for evaluating the effects of land use on greenhouse gas emissions systematically underestimate the opportunity of land to store carbon if it is not used for agriculture.”
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A systematic study is finding significant records being set showing extremes for both high and low rainfall events. Also, the persistence of occurrences for each of these types of event tends to be regionally divided. Both kinds of extremes are fully associated with the underlying trend of global temperature increases over the past hundred years, excluding natural variability as the cause. The study was based on analysis of historical data gathered from roughly 50,000 weather stations worldwide.
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Farmers in the midwest are frustrated by difficulties caused by climate change (The Guardian). The growing season has lengthened, making it possible to get higher yields, but a rising number of extreme events must be dealt with, often in a costly way. Actually achieving the higher yields is thus increasingly difficult.
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A progress report from the international climate conference in Poland. There have been some bright spots but universal agreement is lacking. “The talks have centred on devising a rulebook for implementing the 2015 Paris agreement and raising countries’ level of ambition to counter climate change, but progress has been slow on several key issues and divisions have emerged between four fossil fuel powers – the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait – and the rest of the world.” Many comments refer to the growing sense of urgency among those who are calling for action.
Carl