Climate Letter #1910

Thanks to the incredibly helpful visual imagery provided by Today’s Weather Maps, we are able to identify the locations of three major pathways of jetstream wind activity in each polar hemisphere. We can also examine the actual wind behavior on each day, as it varies from one day to the next on each of those pathways. When comparing the two hemispheres we can see that the pathway locations are defined in ways that are quite similar, but the actual shaping that results varies considerably. Patterns of wind velocities on the pathways also display a high degree of variation. Making full use of the maps provides us with much of the evidence needed for explaining the reasons behind these variations.

We can say with confidence that all three pathways are located through an active relationship between high-altitude air pressure configuration and surface air temperatures. We even get a good idea of how nature does such things, through means that are reasonably understandable. The red-zone pathways in each hemisphere have the greatest amount of similarity with each other because they each tend to follow along the respective borders of the planet’s wide tropical belt. There is not a great deal of variation, seasonal or otherwise, in air temperatures within the belt, and thus not too much along its borders. Border locations, acting in unison, make slow and relatively small shifts between north and south over a calendar year, keeping the inner content steady. The shape of each border has its irregularities, but they are limited, and both tend to remain basically parallel as they trace out long and linear courses around the globe. The associated red-zone jet-wind pathways do little more than follow suit.

Now I want to skip over to the innermost of the the three pathways, the one we have identified on the outer edge of the blue zone. Nature has chosen to set up this pathway such that it surrounds any area of decent size representing effects from a surface that is filled with below-freezing air temperatures, plus maybe a degree or two. Primarily, what each blue zone covers is one large region around each of the poles, supplemented by some occasional smaller fragments outside of these. For geographical reasons the two polar zones show certain monumental differences, such that one currently stays well below freezing all year long while the other does so only in part. Furthermore, we are observing a regular tendency for the warm part to expand year by year at the expense of the other. Likewise, the blue zone is tending toward fragmentation and shrinkage, and thus also the associated jetstream pathways that surround the relics, including the pathway that normally dominates as a major. This is a relatively new development, with no end in sight. We could well be on the verge of complete loss of a major jetstream pathway and contents in one hemisphere for possibly prolonged periods of time each year.

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Jet winds that blow on the blue-zone pathway are naturally the slowest of the three types.  They are most effective when their pathway is positioned close to the green-zone pathway, whereupon the two jets both tend to accelerate as a combination of forces.  If either of the jets is missing this acceleration is lost, and so is any effect it may have had on whatever else is going on (which we’ll get to later).  Moreover, if the entire blue zone goes missing there are sure to be profound consequences for the green zone as a whole, which will no longer have something of substance to wrap itself around.  This will take further study, but based on a few limited memories and images from last summer I believe the normal strength of green-zone jets, aside from acceleration effects, will end up weaker than before, and thus less effective.

Nestled between the blue zone and the red zone, both of which represent a wide and essentially unlimited range of surface temperatures, the green zone currently represents a range of only about five or six degrees. In the absence of any of the freezing temperatures that support the realization of a blue zone, the size and shape of the resulting green zone would be exposed to significant change and fragmentation, leading to unpredictable effects on the character of its outer border, or borders, where jetstream winds are by nature enabled.

Carl

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