My theory of causation of everyday global temperature changes places sharp focus on the power and behavior of precipitable water (PW) in the atmosphere, especially the portion of it that escapes into the upper part of the troposphere that is dominated by jetstream winds. The PW that exists within that territory, originally in the form of smoothly flowing streams, quickly begins to fragmentize. The fragments that result are greatly varied with respect to their degree of concentration of PW molecules. In addition, all fragments remain constantly on the move over their relatively brief lifetime, steadily losing concentrations as their movement progresses. The Weather Maps make it easy for us to see the greenhouse temperature effects these fragments have on surfaces below their courses of movement, including the relative cooling effects that occur when high-altitude concentrations are noticeably below average for the day.
My research goes on to present a theory about how the varying courses of movement of these fragments are determined, with a strong focus placed on the role of jetstream winds. These winds are sure to be encountered by all PW streams soon after they have entered this strange new environment. Jetstream winds exhibit their own unique pattern of positioning as well as and strength of velocities, all of which is subject to both wide variation and a certain degree of constant change. PW streams, by nature the weaker of the two, react accordingly. The interaction between the two types of streams follows certain principles, but the details tend to be both variable and unpredictable. The Weather Maps do a good job of showing us enough of those details to at least give us a considerable amount of information about what determines the courses of streams or fragments of PW movement on any given day. This information is very useful in the making of predictions concerning the outlook for precipitation and temperature change. (The latter of these can be applied in more than one way.)
One more thing the Weather Maps do well is to connect the positioning and velocities of jetstream winds to yet another key component of this overall pattern of activity, by mapping out the unique air pressure relationships that exist in the upper troposphere. Jetstream wind pathways are all governed by the configuration of these relationships, which are established because of regular differentials in natural gradients. This air pressure component also keeps changing its configuration, which ultimately becomes the source of the deep variation in the activity of jetstream winds and thus of the PW streams that are under their influence. We therefore should want to know as much as we can about whatever there may be that serves as a determinant of the observed changes in air pressure configuration. There are some clues revealed by the maps that assist in making such an investigation.
Yesterday I showed four maps from Antarctica depicting how a specific design of air pressure configuration resulted in certain significant temperature anomalies at the surface. Today I want to display two maps from the same region, one showing upper level air pressure and the other the actual air temperatures on the surface. We will look for any kind of basic connection between the two:
A general similarity between the shape, size and location of the blue zone in one map, and those same features contained within the zero-temperature outline in the other, is hard to miss. With close examination, there is even more similarity between the blue zone and the total area contained by about +3 or 4C in temperature. Likewise, these same three features applied to the outer fringe of the green zone conform fairly well with the area contained by temperatures somewhere between+5 and 10C. These relationships are not perfect, and there is no good reason to think they should be, given so much spatial separation, but they are certainly close enough to strongly suggest something other than pure coincidence. I have worked before on the idea of how a feedback loop may be involved in this entire situation, and think this will be a good time to give it renewed consideration—in days to come.
Carl