For quite some time I have been composing these letters around various arguments associated with the basic idea that precipitable water (PW) is the preeminent producer of greenhouse energy effects. One argument is that, outside of the tropical belt, the effect is generated by combining the effects of two separate layers of PW that are observed to exist in the atmosphere, embedded in two separate wind systems. In each of the layers the concentrations of PW have wide variations geographically, and these concentrations also tend to vary widely between the layers in vertically associated locations. Generally, the surface layer will have its highest concentrations in the lower latitudes, rapidly declining for locations sitting closer to the poles, and always reduced in places of high altitude. Lower-level concentrations also tend to have relative stability from day to day. Overhead concentrations follow an entirely different set of rules of distribution, including much more variability over most locations, thus serving as a primary cause of significant near-term temperature variations at the surface.
Today’s average temperature for the entire globe, year around, is about 15C, and rising. Calculations show that if the planet had either no atmosphere at all, or no atmospheric components capable of exercising greenhouse effects, the average would be more like minus-18C—a pronounced difference of 33 degrees. Regional averages would naturally be higher in the tropical belt and trend lower toward the poles. Because of the well-known polar amplification effect, I suspect that polar temperatures, relative to the tropics, would be colder by more than 33 degrees if there were no greenhouse effect, possibly ranging up to 40C or more.
This raises an interesting question. Assuming that the greenhouse effect adds an average of 40C to Earth’s temperature in the mid to higher latitudes, everything else being equal, how could we divide up the source of those 40 degrees among the various phenomena that are productive of greenhouse effects? Offhand, I can think of three distinctive agencies, starting with a combination of the well-mixed greenhouse gases—CO2, methane, nitrous oxide and so on. The surface layer of PW would be another, and high-altitude PW the third. Looking backward in time, starting with a very frigid planet, the well-mixed gases should have been the first to appear, followed by low-lying vapor when evaporation became possible, and finally high-altitude PW once the ocean surfaces had warmed enough. The volume of this material remains dependent in some way on ocean surface temperatures and how they are extended geographically, which varies over time. Many possibilities can be imagined, and the same can be said about the circulatory behavior of concentrated PW streams once they have been lofted to jetstream heights.
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Carl