Climate Letter #1875

Because of the disastrous conditions occurring in Texas, for which no proper preparations had been made, studies related to the polar vortex are sure to proliferate in coming months.  There is an acute need for more and better answers. The actual physical nature of a vortex breakdown can now be timed and charted quite well for recording purposes.  The questions that need answering mostly have to do with causation and/or the reasons behind the extraordinarily puzzling effects.  We were in the midst of a record-breaking warm winter in the Northern Hemisphere when its status quo was suddenly interrupted by a close to record-breaking cold wave over several large territories, yet not everywhere.  A new explainer from AP contains numerous quotes from meteorologists and climate scientists who give the event their best shot:  https://phys.org/news/2021-02-topsy-turvy-weather-polar-vortex.html. Another good source of recent scientific thinking about vortex behavior was reported in an article from Mashable back in early January, when this breakdown was first being detected:  https://mashable.com/article/polar-vortex-explained.  

There is generally an agreement that higher temperatures caused by climate change are a major cause of these events, but the exact mechanics remain vague. The Southern Hemisphere, which has warmed only a little, is not commonly affected by these things. In the NH, by contrast, these events are not only getting more frequent but this one has turned out to be among the worst on record. Then why should surface temperatures, on balance, be getting quite a bit colder as a result, and even breaking records in some places? If you read these letters you have heard about a potential explanation for such effects, which you may or may not be ready to accept, involving the greenhouse energy effect of precipitable water (PW) and the unique way in which it is distributed in the atmosphere. Science has not come to terms with this concept, even to the extent of recognizing it as a possibility. No acceptance, no open denial. It is simply not an active consideration, never mentioned.

This Texas situation is one that calls for science to get interested, because the main anomalies are so large. It can start by studying all of the reasons for why we have daily temperature anomalies, both warm and cold, large and small, some of which, lasting only a few days, or even just one day, can be pretty extreme.  Minus 28C (50F) is pretty extreme. It came and then it went.  A basic cause in a far off place is understood, but what about the immediate cause behind the -28C? For sure, that’s a really rare one, but think of all the other large anomalies of similar duration that are not at all rare.  They too have an immediate cause, and they all can use a valid explanation, simply because they are an everyday part of the natural world if there is no better reason.  That’s what science is for, having been so ever since the days of Aristotle.  In modern times we often can find other good reasons for wanting to know all about the sources of short-term temperature anomalies, and not just the most extreme ones.

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If science were to make up a list of all the things that can cause short-term temperature anomalies, PW would have to be on that list, in fact right at the top. All of the information one could ask for is available, much of it all packaged up and ready to use. On any given day, PW’s departure from average can scale up or scale down with great flexibility, reaching exceptionally high maxima in either direction, completely unmatched by any other regular anomaly contributor. Impact timing, as modified by processes commonly either fading in or fading out, is virtually immediate.

PW effects on any surface location are expressed from two separate sources, creating a combination that is effectively additive. One of these sources is of a varied but generally regular type, having residence in the lowest part of the atmosphere. The other, with residence in a separate wind system in the upper part of the troposphere, has much greater irregularity with respect to concentrations, which at times will exceed the concentration in place at the surface, plus a more constant propensity for movement. Its fluctuations, which can be observed by instruments, appear to account for a major portion of a large majority the largest anomalies that occur in the mid-to-upper latitudes of both hemispheres.

Carl

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