A new monthly update of global temperatures from James Hansen. It features a remarkable increase for the month of October versus 2017, similar to the gain in October 2015 over 2014, which was then the early signature of a major El Nino just emerging and topping out in the early months of 2016. Hansen sees a new El Nino coming but is not ready to predict a new record high in 2019 in part because the sun’s radiance is lower than it was during the last event.
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How the global increase in wildfire intensity affects the growth of CO2 emissions (BBC). That is a question that scientists are trying to find answers to, knowing that all they can hope for are estimates that are not wildly inaccurate. This article has an interesting summary of the studies making that attempt. Natural and unnatural causes, or those under the influence of human activity must in all cases be separated. The main conclusion is that global warming, which can now be completely attributed to humans, is causing an increase in the intensity of wildfires, the effect of which causes a significant boost in CO2 emissions. “Although estimates vary and still carry uncertainties, some experts say wildfires account for up to 20% of total global greenhouse gas emissions. They are estimated to increase by a few percent to roughly 30% by the end of this century depending on how the climate changes.” Those figures basically represent an uncontrollable handicap that, along with the thawing out of permafrost carbon, is eating a hole in whatever remains of the carbon budget.
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The problem of sargassum seaweed deposited on Caribbean beaches is not going away (The Guardian). “At sea, sargassum is an essential habitat for some marine life, but when it reaches land it rots, sucking up oxygen from the water and emitting hydrogen sulphide gas, which smells like rotten eggs.” It has been making appearances every year since 2011 and this year has been the worst of all. Global warming is probably a factor behind observed changes in the way the stuff moves around on the ocean surface.
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How ‘natural climate solutions’ can help the US reduce carbon emissions. A study involving 38 researchers has made a serious attempt to define the maximum potential, by examining and comparing 21 different categories of activity. The results were quite frankly disappointing with respect to the magnitude of what can be accomplished, and also the high cost in terms of providing necessary financial incentives. The study does well to highlight the extraordinary importance (including the high cost) of forest management, protection and reforestation. Whether or not the estimates are correct, these are all things that need to be done, and somehow accomplished, right along with the elimination of fossil fuels.
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A study has been made assessing the way all different nations have set up their climate policies relative to meeting the combined requirements for global temperature targets. They are all displayed on one map with color coding to show comparisons. “This paper provides a means for countries to check how their contribution might be perceived by other countries and thus judge whether they are perceived as a climate leader or laggard…..Civil society, experts and decision-makers can use this to hold their governments accountable….”
Carl