The longstanding anomaly in the Arctic Ocean is finally shutting down, following a steady streak of high daily numbers that began on September 24. My take is that the streak was created by constant inputs of relatively high volumes of high-altitude precipitable water (HAPW) that were entering the polar zone via concentrated streams. The streams would have originated as evaporation from various warm ocean waters on the northern margin of Earth’s tropical belt. My letters have preserved a modest record of how many these streams functioned from start to finish, with everything in a constant state of change. Remnant parts of each stream would find an entry point into the zone, ending with dispersal and total disintegration in just a day or two. What makes the situation so interesting is that for every stream that died a new one was able to move in through its own entry point and replace the warming effect of the other. What has changed is that new streams are no longer getting that opportunity because of the seasonal strengthening of jetstream winds that are able to block their movement. The effectiveness of these winds has been late to develop this year.
The streams that carry HAPW still exist, and are still generally heading northward, but they just don”t travel as far before being blocked off. They still provide the same high volumes of sources of greenhouse-type energy, ending with the same kind of dispersal, and are causing surfaces below to become warmer. One primary thing that has changed, for now anyway, is the location of the warm anomalies. The Northern Hemisphere as a whole has warmed up over the baseline average today by a reported 1.3C degrees, which is entirely the same as it has been in recent weeks. One particular continent, North America, is getting more than its customary share of this warming power, as we can see on this map. The map also reveals the extensive temperature reduction inside the Arctic circle as a whole, as well as across much of its ocean water:
The entire north-center of the continent is feeling the brunt of this shift of warming power, with wide-ranging anomalies in the 10C area. Northern Manitoba is the standout with a solid +20 and probably a little more in spots. We now need to open the TPW map to see if it reveals how the bulk of this warming is being produced. I am changing the angle of perspective in order to provide the best overall showing of the selected stream flows:
The strongest stream is clearly the one that evaporated from waters west of Hawaii and headed straight for the Pacific Northwest. It appears to be staying quite intact until reaching its most northern extent in the Manitoba area, where it finally disperses. Manitoba does not experience any such kind of event very often, hence the large anomaly. The TPW reading of about 13kg that you can see in this location would probably be no more than 3kg on a normal day at this time of year. Getting two doubles is a rare honor, and the reward of +20C (36F) or more for a day or two is surely being locally welcomed. Personally, I welcome the fact that I know how to explain where all that heat is coming from in a reasonable way, and I would be glad to welcome everyone else, including climate science professionals, into the learning of these same well-kept secrets. So—when are you science folks going to get interested? When you do get interested I hope you will quickly send a notice to the University of Maine requesting them to create a map that displays either average TPW readings for each day of the year, tied to an accessible and appropriate baseline period, or else actual TPW anomalies from those averages to each current day. Either one of these would remove a lot of time wasted on improvisation and low-quality guesswork. Would the result be of benefit to science? Who wants to say no? In any case, there is an easy way to find out.
I should mention that there are two more HAPW streams currently affecting North American temperatures, both having sources in waters of the Pacific, which are one to each side of the large major. Their impacts are diversified and real, but less strong, less dramatic. One further note—I have checked for cloud cover and snow cover in Manitoba, using the regular map sources, and found them both to be on the heavy side, with more snow coming down. Neither of these factors could be adding anything to the observed warm anomaly.
Carl