Climate Letter #1817

An idea that was introduced toward the end of yesterday’s letter came to mind on the spur of the moment as I was rushing to get things finished.  I think the idea makes sense but needs to be expanded and cleaned up in places.  The basic idea, properly stated, is that the normal high-altitude air pressure configuration above the upper part of the Northern Hemisphere, previously adapted to historically frigid temperatures, began changing as an effect (not a feedback) of the warmer surface air created by rising levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases being introduced by human activity.  Water vapor at the surface also increased—in this case naturally—as an effect of the heat from that activity, correctly being designated as a positive feedback because water vapor happens to have greenhouse powers similar to those of the other gases, and even greater, which further amplifies the total amount of warming by a significant margin.

The lesser amount of water vapor that normally enters the high-altitude space occupied by jetstream winds would not necessarily increase in volume as a result of this particular surface warming, all because of the limitations surrounding the relatively few surface locations from which it evaporates. Whatever amount of vapor is in that space would, however, be affected by the changes occurring in air pressure configuration at the same level. These changes regularly cause changes in the behavior of jetstream winds that are continuously governed in positioning and strength by the shaping of the air pressure configuration. I expect that a full and proper analysis, once undertaken, will show that the actual changes in shaping had an overall weakening effect on the normal functioning of the jetstream winds. The consequences of this weakness would then allow incremental increases in the movement of water vapor in directions that could take it over planetary surfaces in the higher latitudes, adding incrementally to the warming of those surfaces. This activity, as described, means that air pressure configuration dynamics become established as an essential link within a complex feedback process, a process that otherwise might never begin.

This feedback activity becomes one segment of an entire process that has all of the makings of a true feedback loop. At least some of the surface warming added by the water vapor movement would occur in locations that directly affect high-altitude air pressure configuration in much the same manner as that which was originally accomplished by global warming effects. These effects, of course, have never stopped, but just keep on growing.  As an overall result, the primary warming created by all types of ordinary greenhouse gas effects at the surface is being amplified by the extraordinary effects of a single greenhouse gas, water vapor, a limited amount of which is uniquely situated in a high-altitude section of the atmosphere. The normally limited outreach of this vapor has been extended by circumstances not of its own making.  This amplified level of warming, in turn, is quite possibly being further amplified by the creation of mutual feedback effects in the form of a loop, as described above.  One more possible source of amplification seems likely, but in need of verification, via enhancement of heat-sensitive sources and processes that are constantly delivering fresh batches of water vapor to the upper atmosphere. I wonder if there are any limitations to potential quantities of this vapor?

This is a pretty wild story, sounding a little like science fiction. If it is true one should expect certain physical results to appear, with a focus on weirdly warm temperature anomalies that cannot be readily explained by other processes. Also, since images of air pressure configuration are available and easy to read one should expect to see current signs of severe deformation. There seem to be such signs, except that we don’t have imagery of the exact same type saved from past decades from which true comparisons could be made. Perhaps there will be ways to overcome this problem. One can still raise questions about why the story I.ve been telling does not include any reference to the Southern Hemisphere, in spite of many similarities with the North. There is one big difference, set by the huge mountain of ice that tops the continent of Antarctica, which sits squarely on the pole. It could easily delay the start of the process by preventing the same kind of heat buildup that originally initiated the alteration of air pressure configuration in the north. Observations reveal that water vapor streams are in fact quite active in the hemisphere’s high altitude but are left with relatively little opportunity to increase their freedom of movement.

Carl