The images I posted yesterday are still in place when you bring up yesterday’s letter, which is a great relief. Permanent records of this type are needed because they can help lay the foundations for a new branch of climate science that will focus on the effects of high-altitude water vapor on surface air temperatures. This science, once it is fully established and mastered, should be able to resolve a number of questions about climate and climate change that are still troublesome. The missing focus escaped the attention of an older generation of scientists who did not have good imagery available to rely upon in support of concepts that could otherwise only be imagined. Now that we do have good imagery, published daily in well-defined formats by unquestionably reliable sources, and backed by high-tech methods of data collection the accuracy of which cannot be faulted, there is no longer a legitimate excuse for overlooking or avoiding a promising new route of investigation into the formation of Earth’s climate and possible causes for change.
The collection of daily images produced at the University of Maine are simply priceless. They must all be preserved somewhere in a library that will be readily available to future students. The few that I have picked out for display and interpretation barely scratch the surface of what can possibly be learned about a previously hidden understanding of how the system really works. None of this material should ever be lost. (As a temporary fix for my own needs, I am now creating image views in the regular way, email links to each of the views to myself, open these links to get back the same views but from a new source, which can then be directly downloaded and stored in what appears to be a preservable form, because it is working.)
There are two images I want to show (and preserve) today which are important from a seasonal standpoint as both are presently undergoing a steady process of change. These depict the pattern of 500hPa air pressure configuration at the polar core of each hemisphere. Both of these are sensitive to surface air temperatures at the respective poles, with the southern one now in a warming trend while the north is cooling. The size and shape of these patterns basically govern the location and strength of all the jetstream winds in each hemisphere. Increasing coldness generally enhances qualities of strength, warmth the opposite. Regular comparisons of these images enables us to follow and evaluate whatever progress is being made in preparation for the next season. Images of both have often been recorded in these letters since early summer, with updates once again in need of a checkup. First the south:
This is a picture of strength, not much different from what we observed during the mid-year winter months, and highly consistent with the strong jetstream imagery that is still in effect. The size, deep color and compact nature of the blue zone is especially noteworthy. Now for the north:
This configuration shows a great deal of strengthening compared with what we saw last summer, but would still have a long way to go in an “old fashioned” winter season. The large area of blue-zone fragmentation is almost certainly highly unusual, on the weak side, but I can do little more than wish we had annual comparisons on hand for this date over the last 30 or 40 years as proof. By presumption, the relative jetstream weakness now in effect is a consequence that basically explains why concentrated streams of high-altitude water vapor are still able to make deep penetration into the Arctic region and consistently cause so much warming. Just for a reminder, this warming at the surface helps to sustain the summer-like weaknesses in the pressure pattern in the air high above, a pattern that is basically responsible for the jetstream weakness causing anomalous warming down below, thus creating a series of processes in the form of a feedback loop that stubbornly resists being overturned.
Carl