A new study explains the way rising temperatures affect the behavior of the jet stream, resulting in an increase in extreme weather episodes in the Northern Hemisphere. A strange type of high-altitude atmospheric event is involved and likely to increase. The authors note that the severity of these events should decline if aerosol pollutants are largely removed from the atmosphere, which is expected to happen, but the overall problem would still grow because of the extra heating that is added.
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–Note: Michael Mann, the lead author of the study, has posted a thorough and more personalized review of this work, one that is quite readable and has lots of diagrams, for the Real Climate website:
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What are the prospects for an abrupt type of change in the climate? Yale Climate Connections draws together some studies and current opinions that describe how such events have happened in the past and run some risk of being touched off again. There are no clear forecasts, but the discussion is interesting because there are several massively large features on the Earth’s surface that appear to be vulnerable to rapid changes that would quickly affect the climate, e.g., ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and the AMOC, or Gulf Stream. Richard Alley is one of the persons quoted.
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How the climate of the UK has changed over the last fifty years (The Guardian). While there is nothing catastrophic to report in this corner of the world it also true that almost everything is noticeably different from what it was, effectively creating a “new normal” plus a whole new set of extremes.
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One more review of the new study of ocean heat uptake that was covered in yesterday’s letter (Washington Post). This one contains reactions from several scientists who clearly have high regard for the authors and take their work seriously. Still, they are not ready to accept it as conclusive, with statements such as, “if these rates are validated by further studies….” That is to be expected when the findings and its implications are so extraordinary. The coming UN conference in December is not going to take this up or make any kind of changes in its program for climate action. Then the question is, what kind of effort will be made to validate the findings, and how soon? Because the methods used are so unfamiliar, leaving so much for other scientists to learn, I would expect the validation process to drag on for at least a couple of years. It will be an interesting one to watch.
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A leading expert in the study of large dams describes the kind of harm they do. He fully recognizes the benefits but they are generally outweighed when all the costs are added up. He also thinks there are risks from climate change that make their situation even worse.
Carl