Jennifer Francis is a well-known climate scientist who has authored many popular studies about the effect of jetstream developments on climate conditions in the Northern Hemisphere. She and two colleagues have published a new report covering concerns created by the greatly amplified warming trend across the Arctic, entitled “Increased persistence of large-scale circulation regimes over Asia in the era of amplified Arctic warming, past and future.” It puts special emphasis on reasons for the long duration of warming events while at the same time revealing much information about how the science community describes the primary causes of these events—all of which directly relates to subject matter often covered in these letters since last April. I would encourage you to read at least the Abstract and Introduction for a clear and up-to-date view of where science currently stands on these issues, admittedly treated as not yet fully resolved. The study is available in full at this site: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-71945-4
This next sentence, forming the main basis of the study, should sound familiar to regular readers: “We investigate changes in the persistence of large-scale weather systems through a pattern-recognition approach based on daily 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies over the Asian continent.” I have posted images of these anemic-looking configurations many times in recent months, thinking they may not be normal, but could never find any images or discussion to refer back to for making proper comparison. It is now safe to say that this year’s mid-summer images have been anomalous, causing jetstream winds in this hemisphere to change their regular course of flow in anomalous ways. The specific reasons I have proposed for the possible cause of the configuration anomalies are not addressed in the study. The authors have prepared their own scientific explanation that is considerably more technical, which I am not ready to evaluate or summarize.
I have also browsed through the study looking for whatever sources are being considered for the very warm day-by-day temperature anomalies in the Arctic, mainly to see if water vapor was ever mentioned, either by the authors or any of the references, and found nothing. The theme I keep proposing apparently has no serious following or it would have been introduced at some point. The various interactions I have observed—as recently as yesterday—between jetstream winds and streams of water vapor moving poleward at the same high altitude is simply not something under discussion in the scientific community.
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Carl