A global temperature report for the month of September. This year’s global average was practically the same as the 2017 month. The 12-month moving average is still showing a very slow downtrend but remains about two-tenths of a degree above where it was five years earlier, just before the start of the last El Nino. That is significant because another El Nino is rated as a probability in the near future, not as strong as the last one but still able to give the average a good boost. The long-running trend of 1.7C increases per decade could be getting an upward nudge in this case.
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Interesting views are expressed concerning the rate at which hurricanes can intensify. Michael caught everyone by surprise, and that experience could become more common in the future. From Kerry Emanuel, “Troublingly, intensification rates don’t increase linearly as the intensity of a storm increases–they increase by the square power of the intensity. Thus, we can expect future hurricanes to intensify at unprecedented rates, and the ones that happen to perform their rapid intensification just before landfall will be extremely dangerous.”
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The world is on a path toward yet greater hurricane damage. The root cause is found in the warming trend of ocean surface temperatures. That trend may be slow but it is also shown to be an effective agency in terms of storm severity. “A number of insurance companies are already adjusting their rates and their policies based on climate change outlooks.”
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Another huge iceberg is poised to break off from Antarctica’s Pine Island Glacier (Scientific American). “If the iceberg breaks off in one piece, it will be a whopping 115 square miles (300 square kilometers), which is even larger than the one that broke off last year.” The source of the iceberg is a shelf that extends out from the glacier over ocean waters that have upwelled and are thought to have been warmed elsewhere as an effect of climate change.
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Arctic sea ice has lost two-thirds of its thickness since 1958. That is mostly due to losses of multiyear ice, which is continuing. Ice that forms and melts within one season has not been showing much loss of thickness but is more vulnerable to breaking up under extreme weather conditions, such as those of 2012 when the all-time lowest extent on record was reached.
–This year reached the fourth lowest extent on record in September after getting off to a bad start last winter, as shown on this graph:
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New studies find a real connection between mental health and bad weather events (Psychology Today). That has been found in many small studies, and is now seen in “the results of a large-scale study providing empirical evidence of the mental health risks threatened by climate change.”
Carl