A study about the Great Drought of 1875-78 and the resulting famine. This was a disaster that cost over 50 million lives, mostly due to widespread crop failures that occurred in Asia, Brazil and Africa. The causes were entirely natural, “aided in no small part by one of the strongest known El Niños.” According to the lead author, “a similar global-scale event could happen again. Moreover, rising greenhouse gas concentrations and global warming are projected to intensify El Niño events, in which case “such widespread droughts could become even more severe.”
https://phys.org/news/2018-10-climate-scientist-stage-reprise-worst.html
https://phys.org/news/2018-10-climate-scientist-stage-reprise-worst.html
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A comprehensive new study provides reasons for why a major reduction in meat consumption has an essential role to play in climate change mitigation. The high-level research team had 24 participants; there is open access to their report. One of their many conclusions is that “In western countries, beef consumption needs to fall by 90% and be replaced by five times more beans and pulses.”
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A recent study has found a developing environmental process that is likely to speed up the thawing of Arctic permafrost. Warmer temperatures are causing the spread of plant species in tundra regions that grow much taller than those they replace. “Arctic regions have long been a focus for climate change research, as the permafrost underlying tundra vegetation contains one-third to half of the world’s soil carbon. When the permafrost thaws, greenhouse gases could thus be released. An increase in taller plants could speed up this process as taller plants trap more snow in winter, which insulates the underlying soil and prevents it from freezing quickly and deeply in winter.”
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A “minor” greenhouse gas has a major effect on climate change. This story about the importance of the short-lived gases pays special attention to one of them, the HFCs, that could be quickly and drastically reduced if an existing international treaty (the Montreal Protocol) can be given a simple amendment. “The Kigali amendment, by avoiding the equivalent of up to 90bn tonnes of CO2 by 2050, could be “perhaps the single most significant contribution to keeping warming well below 2C.” That amount of climate forcing is equal to that of well over two years’ worth of total greenhouse gas emissions including CO2. It would help not just by halting new emissions but would actually reverse the existing level of these harmful gases due to their short life.
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An article that provides a detailed explanation of the way oceanic inertia delays the full impact of the warming caused by greenhouse gases. This comes from the highly respected Skeptical Science website. The material has direct application to rounding out an explanation of the ideas I have lately been writing about but does not specifically make reference to the distinction between land and ocean surface warming. From one key sentence, “What this means is that at the point that we realized 1°C warming, we had already locked in 1.5°C warming.” I hope to have ready some additional comments in tomorrow’s letter.
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A terrible disaster is just days away. If this thug is elected president of Brazil, which looks almost inevitable, what can the rest of the world do to protect its priceless resources?
Carl