About last Friday’s Climate Letter:
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1. Here are links to clear and closely related views of the most relevant chart anomaly data for average air temperatures around the globe since 1880, separating land only, ocean only and the full combination, with a baseline roughly equal to the preindustrial average:
–Global average: go to http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/–click on “PDF” below the chart.
–Land /ocean: go to http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/ –scroll down just a bit, then click on “with 1880-1920 base period.”
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2. The global average is based about 70 % on ocean readings and 30% on land. For any given date, take 70% of the ocean reading and 30% of land and the two numbers should add up to the combined global average reading, which was a little below 1.2C in 2017, dropping to probably 1.1C this year.
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3. If you extend the green line on the global average off the chart until it would reach 1.5C that should take about 25 years, and would also imply staying on course at 0.17C per decade.
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4. If land temperatures also stay on course–sorry, no green line–they would come to about 2.2C in those 25 years. With the same for ocean you get about 1.2C. (Again take 30% of 2.2 (0.66) and 70% of 1.2 (0.84) to get the full 1.5C.) Note that the spread differential between land and ocean keeps growing in that event, to 1.0 from around 0.8 at present. The spread can keep growing for a bit longer, then must turn around and shrink until some far off day when the two surface averages again become equal, or even higher for awhile over the ocean.
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5. Air temperatures over land will keep rising as long as CO2 and other greenhouse gases keep rising, subject to any significant modification in Earth’s albedo, as from ice and snow cover, cloud cover or aerosol effects. Each CO2 increase of 10.4% is currently adding 0.5C to the average over land. (That has been a fact for forty years now, as you can see on the chart.) On the present course of 2ppm per year, which of course we are hoping to reduce, the next half degree would take less than 25 years.
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6. The ocean air chart shows quite a bump over the last 3-4 years, thanks in large part to the major El Nino. I think if ocean surfaces were keeping pace with land temperature increases we would be getting even larger volumes of rainfall than the deluges experienced recently, and more hurricane action as well. In that regard, but maybe not all regards, the ocean heat sink is doing us a big favor. That same sink doesn’t seem to have much, if any, cooling effect over land, which keeps getting badly burned by more and more drought, wildfires, heatwaves and so on.
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7. There will be a new IPCC report this week. The ideas you see here are probably different in some respects from the more conventional ones that will be found in the report. Unless I find some holes (let me know!) I will probably keep talking this way.
Carl