A good review of how IPCC reports are put together and what to expect from the one that is on the way (BBC). This week the finishing touches are being put on it by a meeting of the 86 lead scientists and a group of government delegates. Sparks will fly. “IPCC sessions are closed from the public, to allow governments and scientists to speak freely. Governments often seek to make changes to the text – the scientists are there to ensure that if changes are made, they are consistent with the research.” Single articles of an extreme nature don’t really count. “The collective view of the available literature is the most robust contribution that we can provide to the governments.”
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Here is an example of a unique and extreme piece of scientific research, just published today, that, while too late for this IPCC report, would probably not have its findings accepted. In general, “Two University of Washington scientists have discovered that plants with thicker leaves may exacerbate the effects of climate change because they would be less efficient in sequestering atmospheric carbon, a fact that climate change models to date have not taken into account.” They think it could make a difference of as much as an extra 1.4C being added to the modeled temperature increase later this century if the CO2 level as projected reaches 710 ppm, by reducing the carbon sink. (No effect was stated for CO2 at 450-500 ppm, which is a less outlying assumption for actual occurrence.)
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The US Department of Transportation has it own predictions about where global temperatures are heading. The forecast of 7 degrees Fahrenheit, or about 4C, by 2100 was buried in a 500-page draft environmental impact statement. “The statement analyzes that carbon emissions would have to be steeply cut in order to prevent the warming, adding that such an action “would require substantial increases in technology innovation and adoption compared to today’s levels and would require the economy and the vehicle fleet to move away from the use of fossil fuels, which is not currently technologically feasible or economically feasible.” (The White House was slow to comment on this disclosure, which was first reported by the Washington Post.)
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Germany is preparing to cut down the Hambach forest in order to expand a vast lignite coal mine. This highly controversial move has been met with intense protests from environmental activists, many of whom camped out in tree houses for up to six years.
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New research calls for cutbacks in biofuel programs in favor of letting trees grow naturally. “…..for now the best biologically based carbon dioxide reduction strategy is to protect and restore carbon-rich natural ecosystems…..By avoiding deforestation and by reforesting harvested areas, up to one-third of current carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels could be sequestered in the biosphere.”
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It’s possible for sickly farmland to be brought back to full health. Here is an example of a North Dakota farmer who did it, after once ruining his land, and cattle too, using all the conventional modern methods. The results are amazing, including the carbon benefits: “On our home place, where we’ve done in-depth, significant testing, our soils have 96 tons of carbon per acre in the top 48 inches—compared with the 10 to 30 tons of stored carbon typically found in conventionally farmed soils of the Northern Plains.” (There is no better way to sequester carbon.)
Carl