Climate Letter #1237

An important new study of marine heatwaves, reviewed here by Carbon Brief.  The study gives a clear picture of what can happen to the oceans with global temperature increases ranging up to 3.5C.  The review is outstanding, with too much information for a meaningful summary, but one question remains unresolved for others to answer.  Is there a way to stop temperatures from reaching 3.5C, equal to where they were in the mid-Pliocene when the CO2 level was not much higher than where it is today?

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An interesting report was published about a year ago dealing with questions surrounding efforts to reveal the true global average temperature rise since preindustrial times.  Here is a link to the full study, which you can look over or just read the abstract, which has the most important conclusion:  https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0007.1—-“Our assessment is that this preindustrial period [1720-1800] was likely 0.55°–0.80°C cooler than 1986–2005 and that 2015 was likely the first year in which global average temperature was more than 1°C above preindustrial levels.”  That helps to confirm the common idea that the current warming can be called plus-1.1C with reference to the Paris targets.  There is also a figure within the study which I have extracted and blown up that is quite interesting, at this link:  https://journals.ametsoc.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/ams/journals/content/bams/2017/15200477-98.9/bams-d-16-0007.1/20171004/images/large/bams-d-16-0007.1-f2.jpeg—It looks to me like we can settle on readings of an overall rise of 0.3C between 1750 and 1975, a period that included numerous irregularities, and a further rise of 0.8C since 1975 following a long and linear type of upward slope, which brings us to 1.1C plus having that strong and more pronounced trend in effect.
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Signs that the next five years are likely to remain on the upward trend.  A new study looks at natural variability trends that cause temperature trends to wobble back and forth for any number of reasons and concludes that the next five years are more likely to be a little above trend than below.  An El Nino event that some have been predicting for a beginning later this year would suffice to make the study look good for at least a couple of years.
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For the US block of 48 states, the three-month period May-June-July this year was the warmest on record.  That would certainly help to account for all the fires.  Death Valley was the world’s leader for temperature with a 108.1 average.
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There were authentic magazine and newspaper accounts as early as 1912 about the greenhouse gas effect of burning coal and how climate would change as a result.
Carl

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