Climate Letter #1224

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A UN report warns of climate instability in the Arab states across North Africa and the Middle East.  “The Arab region has 14 of the world’s 20 most water-stressed countries and 90% of the region lies in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid zones……over the past decade cycles of drought, the frequency and severity of which are beyond anything seen for hundreds of years in the region…..its direct impact on decreasing water and food security is feeding armed conflict.”  (There is no mention of the fact that temperatures in this very hot region have been well above normal throughout the current summer.)
–A deeper look at what this means in the agricultural parts of Iraq (Thomson Reuters Foundation):
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A full report on the current wildfire situation in the US western states (Vox).  There are many interesting facts and some good video coverage in this story.  Climate change does not increase the number of fires, which are almost all caused by human carelessness, but it does increase their intensity and total acreage.
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PBS Newshour has an interview with the author of a major NY Times publication about climate change.  The main topic refers to scientific discoveries and decisions made in the US during the decade 1979-89, as told by James Hansen.  The threat that we now see coming true was clearly visualized at the time but there was no willingness to act.  That was before the wind and solar solutions had become viable, leaving nuclear power as the leading option for replacing coal with renewable energy—not too popular.  There still could have been a move to reduce energy demand by putting in place a carbon tax with dividends, that the public might have liked if done properly, but not the coal and oil companies, or big spending people in general.
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Climate science:  A new, much hotter, estimate for Earth’s temperature 50 million years ago.  This is an important story because the CO2 level at that time has been estimated at around 1000 ppm, which is what we could be heading toward by the end of this century in the worst scenarios.  The new estimates, using new sources of evidence, are tied to land areas having the same latitude as Western Europe, describing temperatures that were 10-15 degrees C higher than those of today.  They are consistent with estimates previously derived from oceanic sources but not repeated on land.  “These results suggest that temperatures similar to those of the current heat wave that is influencing western Europe and other regions would become the new norm by the end of this century if CO2 levels in the atmosphere continue to increase.”
https://phys.org/news/2018-07-ever-increasing-co2-tropical-climate-paleogene.html
–There is a little more information about the methods used in the study’s abstract at this link:
Carl

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