A new study proposes major changes in our understanding of climate sensitivity. The authors, working at the University of Toronto, wanted to know why temperatures in the mid-Pliocene era, some 3 million years ago, were several degrees higher than those of today, even though the atmospheric CO2 level is thought to have been largely contained within a range of just 300-400 ppm. The study has not made big waves in the scientific community but no doubt carries a great deal of interest, mainly because of the convincing way it looks at how the meltdown of polar ice sheets will affect global temperatures over an extended period of time, i.e., well beyond 100 years. They see considerable amounts of extra warming that would mainly be due to decreases in albedo, to an extent much greater than that revealed in existing models, because of the ways that land surfaces will be changed in the polar regions. This is consistent with the theories of Jerry Mitrovica that I pointed out in yesterday’s letter except that Mitrovica, who does not choose to deal with albedo questions, introduces far more uncertainty into the ultimate picture of what those land surfaces will look like as his ‘dynamic topography’ adjustments materialize. This whole field of study is in its infancy, and we can at least be thankful that its seemingly scary outcome lies mainly in centuries beyond the current one.
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Note: This paper is admittedly a long and slow one to read, but you might find it worth spending at least a little time on now and then just as a background study of where the science may be heading.
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A deep dig into the ‘non-carbon’ evils of tropical deforestation, by Fred Pearce (Yale e360). This article is mostly about its potentially devastating damage to the workings of the hydrological cycle, with references to a number of new or recent studies. “A growing body of research suggests that this hitherto neglected impact of deforestation could in many continental interiors dwarf the impacts of global climate change. It could dry up the Nile, hobble the Asian monsoon, and desiccate fields from Argentina to the Midwestern United States.”
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Observations about climate change in Southeast Asia by Keith Schneider. This short video features a veteran journalist who has no doubt about the reality of climate change in places he has often visited.
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The expansion of the tropics, due to climate change, is causing a shift of cyclone formation into areas of higher latitude. For now this is more apparent in the South Pacific than the North Atlantic, causing concerns for people in eastern Australia, but that is just the beginning.
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Japan is having a summer of catastrophe, which now includes a record-setting heat wave. “The heat arrived in mid-July, following record rains that killed at least 200 people and a typhoon that strafed the country’s southern islands.”
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Could Hoover Dam become a gigantic pumped-storage project (NY Times)? It’s a fascinating idea, with plenty of wind and solar energy readily available for the taking—if it can pass all the vetting tests.
Carl