Climate Letter #337

Posted on February 13, 2015 by Carl Campbell
Western U.S. drought forecast. Like all forecasts, this one has no claim of absolute certainty. It is based on computer models, whereat we are regularly assured that computers keep getting smarter. The trouble is that most of us are totally unable to see for ourselves what these computers are doing, or how good the inputs are. (Why such an absence of rain?)  Thus, if we don’t like the results we have a good excuse for ignoring them. In this case, using the highest CO2 assumptions, the results are so bad that nobody will want to believe them, and you may feel lonely and foolish if you do. Personally, I think there is a good chance that these results are well constructed, and very close to being accurate, but I cannot formulate an argument to defend that view. Compared with sea level projections, which are much easier to understand with respect to cause and effect, the results of this magnitude of drought appear much more catastrophic. Extreme weather events, which we are also beginning to accept as inevitable due to warming, likewise do not compare in terms of catastrophic measures. The prospect of extreme drought, even if it is open to doubt, should at least be treated as one more reason to get serious about countering the associated disasters that we feel more certain about.

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Global warming and the jetstream. This subject is now getting lots of attention. It has importance for aviation, but even more importance due to findings about how extreme weather events are produced by disturbances of the jetstream.
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Aerosol effects. This study focuses on how warming of the Arctic has been inhibited by the presence of reflective aerosols that are a general component of air pollution as formed by the burning of fossil fuels. The story is also good for a basic education in the overall effects of these aerosols and what would happen if we cleaned them up. Either way, the impact is substantial, and is probably the most substantial when connected to Arctic temperatures.
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Further perspectives on Tesla’s new battery plans. This is reallly quite a story. We are not going to get the full flavor for awhile yet, but all the front running commentaries seem very positive if not excited. This describes how you ca quickly do away with a major chunk of fossil fuel energy. One point not mentioned here is that utilities waste about 30% of the power they produce because they have no way to store it. This gives them a good reason to be interested, which is apparently the actual case.
Carl

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