Climate Letter #1207

A new study about the way whole ecosystems in Australia are collapsing because of climate change.  Three authors of the study have penned this short summary of their findings.  It concludes, “The beginning of this century has seen an unprecedented number of widespread, catastrophic biological transformations in response to extreme weather events. This constellation of unpredictable and sudden biological responses suggests that many seemingly healthy and undisturbed ecosystems are at a tipping point.”
https://phys.org/news/2018-07-ecosystems-australia-collapsing-climate.html

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A large rural region in central India has become uninhabitable for several million farmers.  A decline in monsoon rainfalls over the last 15 or 20 years, resulting in repeated crop failures, has caused large-scale migration (Thomson Reuters Foundation).
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An update on the beginning of the US wildfire season.  It’s bad enough to bring forecasts that this year may become one of the worst on record.
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Some of today’s wildfires result in huge recovery problems.  The best solution may even require rapid clear cutting of the trees that remain in place.  There is a brief video of the awesome machines that can do the job, plus many pictures of devastated landscapes.
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This post, written by a real expert, answers every question about the “urban heat island” effect, the damage it causes, and what can be done in mitigation.
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A new review of a recent paleoclimate study.  The first review was posted here on June 26th, in CL #1201.  This one is a little different, because it more clearly states the conclusion of the study that current climate models fail to represent a number of amplifying mechanisms that will increase long-term warming well beyond their usual projections. Thus, “Future global warming may eventually be twice as warm as projected by climate models and sea levels may rise six metres or more even if the world meets the 2°C target.”  Current models look at feedbacks that may occur over the next few decades, or out to 2100, and are accurate enough in that respect, but underestimate the long term feedbacks that originate and will continue to unfold in the polar regions as warm temperatures persist and ice sheets continue to melt, leading the way to still higher temperatures later on.  (The process of melting ice consumes a great deal of heat energy which would otherwise be added to the atmosphere, and that is happening even today.  Once the period of melting is ending that same heat flux becomes outwardly available.  This long-term problem could be overcome, theoretically, by extracting enough CO2 from the air to bring the level back down to perhaps 300 ppm or so.)
https://phys.org/news/2018-07-global-climate.html
Carl

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