A new study analyzes the effects of climate change on biodiversity, and makes comparisons. Many topics are covered, such as how the damage done by climate change can soon overtake that defined by other sources. The frightening conclusion: “The research finds that, in a future with relatively high amounts of global warming and land-use change, the number of animal species in the average ecosystem could fall by 38%, when compared to conditions from 1961-90.”
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Earth’s forests are being disturbed or destroyed at an increasingly rapid rate. “Despite a decades-long effort to halt deforestation, nearly 10 percent of undisturbed forests have been fragmented, degraded or simply chopped down since 2000, according to the analysis of satellite imagery.” The most recent years have been the worst.
https://phys.org/news/2018-06-loss-earth-intact-forests-scientists.html
https://phys.org/news/2018-06-loss-earth-intact-forests-scientists.html
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Corroboration for previously reported evidence showing extreme and rapid shifts in Greenland’s climate during previous periods of global warming as ice ages ended. The early information came from ice cores. Now there is geological evidence, reported (without much detail) in a short video. This information, which comes from Northwestern University, “will feed into climate and ice sheet models to more accurately forecast future warming and sea level rise.”
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How cities are affected by climate change, now and in the future. Urban researchers around the world, seeing the dramatic changes already taking place, are actively taking a hard look at plans for adaptation. Multiple challenges are mentioned in this story.
–For an illustration of actual changes, this link from Climate Central has an interactive chart that will show the trend of increases in the number of summer days having above normal temperatures for cities in every state in the US between 1970 and 2017.
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OPINION. I have been giving more thought to the article on climate sensitivity which was recorded in yesterday’s letter. In case you missed it, here is the link once more: https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-scientists-estimate-climate-sensitivity. The information contained in this article is very useful, a real “must” for anyone who is curious about the future outlook. It correctly emphasizes the fact that there are large uncertainties remaining. That said, it seems to suggest that if you mix together all the uncertainties on both the high side and the low side you will always end up with about the same number, around 3C. That number, based on an extensive list of published predictions from qualified sources, has curiously not changed more than a bit since the year 2000. My personal experience has been that those who argue for a higher number always seem to make a stronger case than those who see it lower. That of course does not prove they are right, but it does suggest that there are genuine risks involved in the current situation that need to be recognized and guarded against even if they are not completely predictable. Surely that would be the approach taken by any competent insurance underwriter. For purposes of setting a carbon budget I would not want to use less than 4C, and all that it entails, as a realistic guide to our true risk exposure if the CO2 level is doubled from its preindustrial state.
Carl