Did you read the top story in yesterday’s Climate Letter? If not, please go back and do so. Then save the link to the full report and when you get some extra time browse through it well enough to see if the project was skillfully handled, well enough to assure the credibility of the conclusions that were drawn. The global warming we have with us today, about 1.1C, is already catastrophic for a few relatively small populations. This research sees the number of victims growing to around 1.5 billion when the warming passes 1.5C, which is almost sure to happen before the middle of this century. That will mainly affect people in Africa and southern Asia, but the unrest that results will be of great discomfort to everyone. I can see this picture as a realistic prediction of what is likely to be happening in just 20-25 years, preceded by a trend of accelerating increases in localized catastrophes from where we are today.
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Can a 1.5C global warmup be avoided? Sure. All we have to do is to perfect the kinds of technology that will suck huge amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere and start applying them immediately. The link below is to a new report that provides an assessment of what those needs are and of everything that is going on today with respect to addressing those needs. One of the starting points answers the question about the true size of the remaining carbon budget. Here is what the Introduction has to say: “Despite recent dispute over the exact size of the carbon budget (Millar et al 2017), the available scenario evidence so far suggests a remaining carbon budget between 0–200 Gt CO2 for the 1.5 °C target, i.e. there may be only five years’ worth of CO2 emissions left at current rates before every additional tonne of CO2 would need to be compensated for again by means of negative emissions.” This is why there is so much talk about the urgency of getting more action toward that end, with emission cuts alone hopelessly unable to achieve such a tight goal.
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An interesting report about the potential for global warming has been issued from China. The report does not contain new research or reveal any surprises. It just summarizes the results of many other highly respected reports about what will happen under a “business as usual” scenario with no emissions control or other mitigation efforts, which is something everyone needs to know and think about. I think this publication is intriguing as a probable indicator of real movement in the thinking and planning occurring at the highest levels of the Chinese government. When China gets serious about something it has the ability to make vast changes more quickly than anyone can imagine.
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New technologies are revolutionizing the production of meat. Clearing pasture land for the purpose of grazing cattle or growing feedstocks for them is a major source of the greenhouse gases causing climate change. There are two alternatives that look promising, one of which creates “real meat” that is grown artificially instead of inside a live animal.
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PV magazine shows how it may be possible to bring the full production cost of solar electricity by utilities down to almost one cent per kWh in the US. It will take a few years to get there, but in several countries bid prices have already dropped below two cents.
–Another report shows how engineers “have developed a way to integrate solar power generation and storage into one single system, effectively reducing the cost by 50 percent.”
https://phys.org/news/2018-05-single-system-solar-tech-energy.html?
https://phys.org/news/2018-05-single-system-solar-tech-energy.html?
Carl