Atmospheric CO2 update. This is the time of year when a critical turning point is reached at the Mauna Loa station in Hawaii. A rising trend caused mainly by plant decomposition rather suddenly becomes a falling trend as photosynthesis takes over in the Northern Hemisphere. The pivot point is generally quite sharp, and when you measure and compare it from year to year you get a good idea of how much human activity has added to the total from one peak to the next. That factor has been averaging 2 ppm per year in this century. During El Nino years the CO2 gain will be higher, but that is because of unique natural causes rather than human activity. This year’s peak, once completed around the end of this month, will probably be found a bit under 412 ppm, which would represent a normal 2 ppm gain over what you can see from a year ago. (Be sure to scroll down for the daily record.) Note that individual day reports can be quite scattered at times, being affected by such things as which way the prevailing winds happen to be coming from and how early or late the spring season is arriving in different faraway places where the wind currents originate.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/graph.html
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/graph.html
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Now take another look at the top chart in the above link, going back to 1958. There is no sign at all of a slowdown, but some day it will slow down, later on it will stop rising, and ultimately it will completely reverse and begin falling. We have absolutely no idea when or at what levels any of those landmarks will take place. Some people pay no attention and don’t seem to care. Other people care quite a bit, because they know that the higher this curve goes the greater the changes will be in the conditions that affect the way we live. To the best of our knowledge those conditions will steadily worsen with each bit of increase, and then the full amount of worsening for each increase will not be realized for at least a century or two as various feedbacks take effect.
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Below there are links to two stories that are critical of the effectiveness of the “carbon budget” as a tool for setting public policies. I think they both make valid points, but they miss recommending one particular change that would be easy to put in place and would make the whole idea of a carbon budget much more straightforward and understandable. In short, instead of tying the budget to temperature targets, like 1.5C or 2.0C, we should tie it to CO2 targets, like 425 or 450 ppm, etc. that are directly consequential. Once you pick a certain ppm anyone with a slide rule can set up the associated budget. Moreover, once the focus is on CO2 there exists a need to determine what the climate outcome will be, near-term and long-term, for each of the potential levels that may be of interest. Those descriptions are still rudimentary, but new and better estimations are constantly being added. Policy makers can look them all over and perhaps decide on one that might be tolerable in most places (especially those not too close to an ocean), then inquire about the associated budget numbers that would need to be met. Furthermore, once you focus on CO2 you cannot avoid asking questions concerning what scientists know about climate conditions in the remote past at times when a similar level is determined to have been in place. Check out the last story in CL# 1171 three days ago for an example of what that approach can lead to.
https://qz.com/1278776/what-is-a-carbon-budget-can-it-help-us-hit-climate-goals/
https://qz.com/1278776/what-is-a-carbon-budget-can-it-help-us-hit-climate-goals/
–And this from Axios: https://www.axios.com/rethinking-the-carbon-budget-message-35c27974-1bc8-4148-b679-7cb18e35f605.html?
Carl