Climate Letter #1743

For over seven years this Climate Letter was primarily a newsletter devoted to passing on credible reports about the causes and effects of climate change, and what the future might hold. I was also trying to learn all I could about the fundamentals of climate science, making up for endless years of neglect. The latter is now my primary interest, because I think I can make a contribution to the science in an area that has been partly mistreated and partly overlooked—the true power of water vapor as a producer of “greenhouse” energy. Science does not want to talk about it, in part because scientists got tired of responding to the harassment of noisy “deniers,” people who were well-funded by special interest groups, who kept insisting that water vapor was much more powerful than carbon dioxide or methane and there wasn’t anything we could do about it—which in many ways is true—so we should stop worrying about all the other stuff, which of course is false.

Science formulated a perfectly reasonable answer by explaining how the warming temperatures caused by the net effect of many different kinds of human activity were 100% responsible for the creation of certain “feedbacks” that could greatly amplify the damage but could not be independently controlled.  Water vapor was thought to be the worst of these feedbacks, but one that would never have become a problem without the initial warming, nor would it worsen any more if the actions that caused it to expand were curtailed, or it could even be diminished if the primary sources of temperature warming were reversed.  And that’s where science still stands, with little thought given to further scrutiny.

For various reasons I was never quite sure that this was the the end of the story. There are conceivable alternatives, which could take effect in any of several different ways. One of them relates to the possibility that unexpected quantities of water vapor could be added to the atmosphere in such a way that the additional vapor would be in a position to exert its full greenhouse energy potential without being controlled by any of the known laws of physics. Scientists have generally maintained that this cannot happen because air temperature sets firm limits on how much vapor the air can hold without reaching a saturation point, which would then cause it to condense and fall out. Reference is made to a relationship called the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, considered the equivalent of a law, as the governing factor. But could unusual conditions arise where the relationship no longer holds? I believe that is already happening and has the potential to progressively grow in importance, all because of things revealed in “Today’s Weather Maps” that I have been writing so much about lately.

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Warmer ocean waters are definitely causing more evaporation, and no limit can be set on the future amounts of production. Condensation and precipitation have definitely been growing along with it, as expected, noticeably participating in everyday weather systems. What is different in my study is happening outside of everyday weather systems, by means of utilizing the separate wind system found in higher altitudes of the atmosphere. Specific conditions arise in certain tropical or subtropical locations allowing large quantities of new evaporation to rapidly be lofted into positions giving them access to these higher altitude winds, with no sign of condensation involved in the process. The winds in this system are naturally very cold and dry, and they never stop moving, in a direction that is normally toward the east and toward higher latitudes. They can carry continuously flowing streams of vapor.for thousands of miles with no sign of condensation until something gets in the way that significantly alters or blocks the flow. In that event both condensation and precipitation are likely to occur, possibly being enabled simply by compression of the gases.

While these vapor streams are coursing across the sky their greenhouse powers must inevitably be unleashed, with effects reaching all the way down to the surface.  The effects are strictly local, and also temporary, since the streams all have limited lifetimes.  They may also be very powerful, because the gases within the streams are relatively concentrated, often greater in amount than the total amount of all the precipitable water in the lower wind system situated above any and all of the same locations.  The total effect on temperature is determined simply by combining the total power of both bodies of vapors. The manner by which the vapor streams are stymied by high-strength jetstream wind currents in the upper wind system is another subject of interest, one that I will save for another day.

Carl

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