The principal message of the long IPBES report that was posted in yesterday’s letter (Thomson Reuters). “Billions of people live on farmland that is deteriorating and producing less food, and this situation could force hundreds of millions of people to migrate over the next three decades…..Decreasing land productivity also makes societies more vulnerable to social instability – particularly in dryland areas, where years with extremely low rainfall have been associated with an increase of up to 45 percent in violent conflict.” Intense conflicts are readily apparent today in many of the affected regions of Africa and Arabia.
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How are nations doing in compliance with the Paris Agreement (New York magazine)? The author of the article, David Wallace-Wells, offers a pretty dim view, which in his case is not unusual, and he is not alone as this story shows. Of the 195 signatories only seven are within range of meeting their targets, and negative emissions technology is not yet performing nearly in the way that was hoped for. “….everything we are seeing now tells us that two degrees, always an optimistic target, is becoming more and more of a long shot.” Paris has begun taking on the look of aother Kyoto.
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A new study finds nuances in how to best attain the Paris goals. It is very important not to temporarily overshoot the selected target. “If we overshoot the temperature target, we do have to reduce emissions to zero. But that won’t be enough….We’ll have to go further and make emissions significantly negative to bring temperatures back down to the target by the end of the century.” Assuming the 1.5C target will be passed that puts a lot of pressure on the need to acquire a stronger focus on staying below the 2.0 mark.
https://phys.org/news/2018-03-paris-agreement-goals-temperature-emissionsstudy.html
https://phys.org/news/2018-03-paris-agreement-goals-temperature-emissionsstudy.html
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A major new permafrost study has been published. One conclusion is that there is still time for strong climate mitigation to prevent a substantial amount of carbon release, most of which will not occur until after 2100 in any case. “The low emission scenario would require carbon emissions by global human society to decrease by 75 percent during this century.” That is a fairly liberal target, much more so than the Paris objective, and should not be too difficult to reach. Their worst case scenario would lead to a catastrophic amount of carbon output before 2300.
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A look at the current trend and potential future of thin-film solar cell efficiencies. Research at Colorado State University is having considerable success in raising the level of efficiency, now set to surpass 19.2% in the laboratory.. “These achievements pave a clear path toward even higher cell efficiencies, and make 25 percent a realistic near-term (3-year) goal and 30 percent a reachable long-term goal.” Adding more layers of new materials really seems to work for them. https://phys.org/news/2018-03-next-generation-photovoltaics-economical-energy.html?
Carl