Climate Letter #1088

An update on current conditions in Somalia.  The unprecedented drought that continues is creating an emergency that endangers up to 5.4 million lives, with many on the brink of famine.  Humanitarian aid has been effective but can only do so much before the potential for migration becomes an imperative.  (Click on HOME on this website for a picture of many other situations where large numbers of people are in a desperate level of need, for a wider variety of reasons.)

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–The city of Cape Town, South Africa, with an economy highly dependent on tourism, is scheduled to run out of water in April:
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What is Earth’s ideal temperature?  What should we aim for in the future?  These questions have gotten tangled up in politics.  The Guardian has collected answers from several well-known scientists, who pretty well agree that any rapid change away from what life has adapted to is dangerous, never ideal.  I would stress the point that humans have adapted to all sorts of climate conditions around the planet, and individuals can easily move around and adapt to a different one, but that is not true of natural ecosystems.  They all need stability in order to stay healthy.  And we humans always depend on having healthy ecosystems around us, that we are then usually able to adapt to.
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What are the main priorities for improving current climate models?  Part 3 of the Carbon Brief series provides answers from 23 prominent scientists.  They cover some of the common shortcomings of all models, but also zero in on specific questions which have never been answered in a completely satisfactory way for any number of reasons.  Many estimates have error bars that too wide for comfort.  How models are able to properly incorporate new data usually offers the best chance of making them shorter.  Cloud effects are often mentioned as an example.
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How does Christianity affect people’s attitudes on climate change (Scientific American)?  In view of the eloquent message from Pope Francis meant for people of all faiths, the data uncovered by a new study of the subject seems like something of a surprise.  The study did not call for details of affiliations of specific explanations but noted that concerns about the environment among American Christians have been declining.  Its author also notes that “previous research had shown that political affiliation and ideology were the most important influencers on Americans’ attitudes on the environment.”  The author of this story adds that “President Trump has packed his Cabinet with evangelical Christians.”
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A new technology can substantially reduce energy requirements for important industrial practices, including a way to replace the Haber-Bosch process for making synthetic fertilizer.
Carl

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