Climate Letter #1039

Posted on November 6, 2017 by Carl Campbell
How Gavin Schmidt sees the warming trend in 2017.  He predicts this year will be either the second or third warmest on record, behind the leader 2016.  Also, it will be the warmest ever for a year not under the influence of El Nino.  His charts make it clear that we are in very high ground these days.

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–An extra thought—I believe we now have to wait for one or two strong La Nina years before making any final decision about where the current possible shift in warming trend is taking us.  Such years will define where the lower boundary of the zigzagging data channel actually lies, just as they always have, and should be ready to do so before too long.  This link has a helpful chart of the Oceanic Nino Index back to 1954:
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Bloomberg has some helpful background information on the US government’s new climate report.  Because of its length the report will probably not be read by many people but it can still be useful as a tool in adversarial situations because of its unquestionably high quality.
–For the New York Times, four of the authors of the report talk about what it means:
–Here is a link to the full report.  If you scroll through it you can see that it is a weighty piece of work, using the same approach as an IPCC report, meant to be taken seriously.
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The meeting in Bonn has potential for being a real success.  The Trump government, already isolated, would be deeply embarrassed if a large majority of other countries actually step up their pace enough to fill in the gap left by Trump’s stubborn refusal to participate.  A number of important Americans will be on hand who will support that majority in many ways.  A good analysis from the Guardian.
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An analysis of Arctic sea ice extent data by a professional statistician.  The most interesting part is shown in two charts near the end, one being the trend for maximum extent each year (we usually only see the minimum this way) and the other being the trend of average daily extent for each full year, timed in a way that allows inclusion through 2017.
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An inspiring story about the development of a new kind of battery for storing electric power.  This group of mostly young scientists at MIT needed a bit of luck but they found a way to accomplish their goal.  Their battery technology is fully competitive with pumped hydro systems for longer-term energy storage while occupying just a tiny fraction of the space, a major boost for smoothing out the intermittent nature of solar and wind production in any location.
–Here is a more detailed report on how the battery works, from a scientific journal:
Carl

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