A new report has disturbing estimates of numbers of future climate refugees. The report, delivered to the coming UN conference in Bonn, includes views of US military and security experts. What one of them says about the next twenty years—“See what happens when climate change drives people out of Africa – the Sahel [sub-Saharan area] especially – and we’re talking now not just one or two million, but 10 or 20 [million]. They are not going to south Africa, they are going across the Mediterranean.” Many recommendations are called for that are totally inconsistent with current US government policies and attitudes, so we’ll see what that leads to.
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Drought in Sri Lanka is causing vast numbers to quit farming and move into cities. “Government data shows that about 4 million Sri Lankans – almost 20 percent of the island’s people – are now internal migrants.”
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A new study shows what is causing the meltdown behavior of Antarctica’s Totten Glacier. High winds affect the movement of waters that are warm enough to do the melting from exposed areas underneath the glacier. The potential for sea level rise is more than eleven feet in the event of a total collapse. It’s a slow process that only recently began, is now speeding up, and is expected to continue increasing due to a complex of changing conditions.
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Around Greenland, a new survey has more than doubled the number of glaciers at risk of accelerated melting. As in the above story, warmer waters are again responsible, but in this case they are arriving at deeper levels from circulatory flows in the Atlantic Ocean. Exposure is determined by the depth of glacial ice below sea level, now being measured more accurately than before. Greenland’s maximum contribution to sea level rise over several hundred years is estimated at just over 24 feet.
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Earth’s temperature history from 850 to 1950. This chart is just part of a connected full study, which was published in 2013 with Michael Mann as one of the authors. The study is mostly about the problems of temperature reconstruction in the absence of the exact data we now have. You can see clear signs of a cooling trend between 1000 and 1650, followed by a partial and irregular recovery, but there are virtually no signs of a real upswing until one gets started around the end of the 19th century. What we refer to as “preindustrial” is represented quite well by the straight black line, and I see no reason not to define that term with data taken from the relatively accurate averages near the end of the 19th, thus avoiding any distortion from the brief and very sharp dip surely caused by the eruption of Tambora early in that century (see yesterday’s letter). Today’s number would be spotted in at about 1.1 on this chart, right where it belongs on the path to Paris targets, and with Michael Mann’s hockey stick very much intact for all to see.
Carl