Climate Letter #314

Posted on January 13, 2015 by Carl Campbell
Drought conditions not improving in Sao Paulo. The wet season is far below what it should be, a tragic development for up to 20 million people. While the causes are complex, one of the main tenets of climate science holds that drought conditions are commonly worsened by warmer temperatures.

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More observations about the effect of peatland fires. This post by Joe Romm provides a good summary, including some helpful information from studies first published a few years ago. The frightening concept of “runaway global warming” depends on carbon emissions getting out of human control. Peatland, along with methane hydrates, is often cited as a potential source of such emissions. Humans are involved mainly by creating the conditions that allow the process to get started, and then nature can take over the pace of future emissions.
The following post provides new information on uncontrolled subsea methane emissions, which is by a totally different process than the above but also has human activity at the starting point.
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New estimate of the social costs of CO2 emissions. This is an ivory tower sort of study that has to get by without any access to hard numbers, and that nobody will pay much attention to anyway, but still has considerable interest. We know that climate change is going to have economic costs, and it only makes sense to try to pinpoint the identity of those costs and then try to estimate them. This study is basically saying that most of the cost is likely to be dependent on what happens to worldwide economic growth, believing it will be slower than otherwise. That is not a bad point to make. Others could argue that growth would do more than slow down, instead going into reverse. Who knows the truth?
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Canadian opposition to Alberta’s tar sands. There is quite a collection of stories available here, not very complimentary, published by a newspaper in Vancouver.
Carl

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