An update on two important questions related to Arctic permafrost decay. This comes from a scientific study published in 2016 that features the work of 98 recognized experts in this field. One point, which is unfavorable, is that the outlook for biomass accumulation in the region is well below previous estimates. The region is likely to turn from an important current sink for CO2 (about one-half billion tons of carbon per year) to a net source by 2100 under any circumstance. The favorable point is that the amount of carbon that will be lost by melting is highly sensitive to future air temperature. If humans can hold to a low-emission scenario it remains possible to avoid a catastrophic release from thawing the ground. That makes the below-2C target all the more vital to accomplish, a conclusion that should be more openly publicized. The study has open access. I recommend that you read some of the discussion that starts on page 9 and especially the conclusion section on page 11, which puts this whole issue into a properly reasoned perspective.
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A new study reveals unexpected damage to the carbon balance in tropical forests (Inside Climate News). This study shows that small-scale disturbances are actually doing considerably more total damage than massive deforestation projects. As in the story above, this activity altogether turns a region that should act as an important sink for carbon into a source. In this case it can be largely reversed in a direct way by managing all kinds of behavioral change along with preventing further advances in the impacts due to climate change.
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An evaluation of the increase in global wildfires, by Yale e360. The increase is substantial, and clearly related to climate change. As this article points out, the result is a variety of unwelcome problems, with a rise in the CO2 level being one of those most noteworthy.
–A fire in Siberia that started on September 22, destroying 2 million hectares, is described as an “unprecedented catastrophe” by the Siberian Times.
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A new appraisal of the global warming “hiatus” early in this century. Changes in a phenomenon known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are seen to have the most responsibility, as discussed by Tim Radford. The long-term trend has now returned to what it was like in the last quarter of the twentieth century.
–This link from the story includes a chart of the PDO from 1925 to 2016:
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Some people in the Solomon Islands are now fully exposed to sea level rise, and will soon have to move. As shown in many fine photos, these people have had a truly unique way of life, one they were happy with, in harmony with nature (Deutsche Welle).
Carl