A warning from David Attenborough. Probably no one understands the natural world better than David Attenborough, or has more respect as an analyst. He sees “overwhelming evidence” of the risks we face.
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Emissions growth predicted up 2.5% in 2015. That would be up from 2.0% growth realized in 2014. The forecast is tied to expectations for global GDP growth, which is always likely to be revised, less about one point for the expected reduction in carbon intensity. China is apparently still chugging along at a brisk rate of about 7%. One reason for questioning the global forecast should center on the pronounced recent slippage in demand for oil.
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Breakdown of 2013 emissions by source. The image at the top of this story can be used to supplement the information I reported in CL#307 about how emissions output is divided. All of the growth is clearly coming from developing countries, plus the international shipping and airline industries, which now combine for 60% of the total. If you love statistics you can also download the full document here, just recently published.
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El Nino update. Forecasters have been calling for about a 60% chance of a mild El Nino forming in this season. This is not quite a real one, but may be a sign of something starting.
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Extinction outlook for 2015. Thirteen large and generally familiar animals are threatened, in addition to countless numbers of plants and smaller animals. The sad situation continues unabated.
Carl