On the list of important threats to the world’s oceans there is a new one. It shows up as #5 in this post, concerning the fact that in several countries plans are being established to begin mining operations on the sea floor.
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Any list of oceanic threats should not ignore the vital importance of plankton to the marine food web, now suffering from declines in both quantity and quality. This earlier post covers a number of observations and explanations, with pollution and global warming caused by humans cited as major sources of the problem. Both of these factors, once in place, are not readily subject to removal. “It may be too late to stop what is causing the plankton to change.”
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Fred Pearce talks about the big question—how will the rest of the world behave as the US backs out of the Paris accord? Fred is one of the most seasoned and well-respected journalists on the scene, and his views must be treated accordingly. In this case he is quite pessimistic, using arguments that are probably as clear as any of that type could be. After you read it I will have some comments about how this situation could evolve in a whole new way, better than before. http://e360.yale.edu/features/with-the-u-s-out-of-paris-what-is-the-future-for-global-climate-fight
Comments: In my view the Paris agreement, for all that it accomplished, was a compromise from day one. It was carefully structured in such a way that every country would feel at ease when joining, based only on making a few unclear and not-too-difficult pledges that did not need to be kept. That led to a mix including some who were enthusiastic about proceeding to the next stage, which would be more serious but subject to negotiation, and others not so inclined who could afford to wait and see without being committed. That created the potential for distinct factions to arise and take sides around any future decisions, for a costly waste of time and uncertain results. How could this quandary be improved? By formation, one way or another, of a smaller and tighter group of nations consisting only of those who are 100% committed to getting the best possible result, regardless of what others are doing. That would have to include setting up a hefty carbon tax for all the members and extending it to imports. If China chose to be part of that group, and to become its leader, plus France and a few more developed countries, plus all of the most vulnerable ones, which happens to include India, it would have an overwhelmingly powerful effect. I can see this unfolding because of the way China’s attitude has been changing.
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Here is a description of India’s main problem, heat. India is high on the list of hottest populated places on Earth, and already suffering badly from the stress level of heatwaves that are currently in effect. Increases beyond 1.5 or 2C would be completely intolerable in much of the country.
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Chad, in the heart of Africa, is named the one most in peril from climate change out of a list of 186 countries. With a population of ten million the country is vulnerable for reasons that include extreme poverty and internal conflicts. “Climate studies project things will get increasingly hot and arid throughout the 21st century, which means lower crop yields, worse pasture, and a harder life for anyone dependent on Lake Chad.”
Carl