Climate Letter #1722

Thoughts about temperature anomalies.  I have been studying Today’s Weather Maps virtually every day for the past several years and have become more and more fascinated by the kinds of information they provide.  As you may have noticed in yesterday’s letter I make a practice of comparing the information on any one chart with that found on others, to see if there is a relationship, and often there is, even when more than two maps are compared.  Many of these relationships have proved to be consistent, in the form of discoveries that should be of considerable interest to science if they were properly presented through regularly established channels. I cannot do this without some help, but can at least keep on building a case through this medium.

The most notable difference that could eventually show up begins with explaining the basic causes of the air temperature anomalies, both warm and cold, that we see every day. Every one of them exists for a reason, and that reason is not always easy to see, or to explain. I think scientists should be ready to admit that some current explanations are not really satisfactory and could stand some improvement. A case in point would be the major Siberian heatwave that recently occurred, but certainly there are many more like it. Where to begin? I think nothing could beat doing fundamental studies of the daily weather maps, the very same set that I have been looking at. These maps all represent well-tested snapshots of a particular slice of reality. They all contain a vast amount of information, easily absorbed because of the ingenious presentation, making them a great source for finding consistent relationships. As such anyone who makes the effort should find that they constitute a reasonable approach for uncovering deeper layers of reality. One particular relationship involves effects that are generated every day by high-altitude streams of water vapor. These effects are at times amazingly powerful as well as consistent in all kinds of different situations. They simply cannot be ignored, and yet that is what is happening. Unless you are reading these letters you just never hear about the regular way they are transforming surface air temperatures.

I have learned from studying the maps that temperature anomalies are always complicated. There are a half dozen or so different factors that always have to be checked for applicability. Scientists do in fact check them out, with one glaring exception, and often extend their investigations into possibilities of a more exotic nature, which is fine. Water vapor, the one exception, is commonly treated as nothing more than a simple amplifier of the effects of CO2, a substance that is very well-studied, and as such is considered to have no strictly independent effects of its own. I simply cannot agree with that attitude. I have been reporting many reasons behind this disagreement lately and I keep finding more evidence, which I will keep on showing, even though it is not always as easy a thing to do as I wish it were. Much of the evidence is not likely to take root unless the individuals who receive it are, to begin with, willing to spend a certain number of hours studying and comparing the clues found deeply buried in the Weather Maps. How many people are ready to do that?

Water vapor that flies around at a high level in the atmosphere behaves in a manner quite unlike that of vapor that lies close to the surface, or vapor in regions of maximum evaporation and continuous rainfall. It can travel to unexpected places in unexpected quantities, constantly releasing its immense power as a greenhouse gas while it does so. This simple fact, and I really do mean fact, is a critical component of nearly every warm anomaly. Moreover, when this kind of vapor is completely or nearly absent, as is often the case, cool anomalies are just as likely to appear. These things happen every day, in every corner of the globe. I hope more people, including scientists, will find this as interesting as I do, and can visualize the potential importance.

Carl