Climate Letter #874

“The most influential climate change paper of all time” is now fifty years old.  It established the basic principles for setting up a model of how changes in CO2 plus many feedbacks would affect global temperatures, and even produced some numbers in1967 that have stood up quite well. This story from Forbes will give you a good introduction to the subject and its many ramifications, helping build confidence that science is on the right track.  And the models keep getting better, bit by bit.

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A brand new example of a phenomenon that might be added to current climate models as an adjustment to future forecasts.  As a potential feedback it could have some effect on Earth’s albedo, which an important consideration for determining energy imbalance.  There is a constant parade of adjustments like this, most of which seem to be unfavorable, and they all add up even if not too critical individually.
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Climate change in Iran since 1951:  Now much warmer than average, with less precipitation.  All I can show you is the abstract of a study from a journal, which offers a clearly written summary.  The part explaining why there is a reduction of precipitation is especially good to learn about as it must also apply to a number of other countries at about the same latitude that are hot and dry to begin with.
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South Africa, hot, dry and at the same latitude as Iran, though in a different hemisphere, is also running low on water.  Cape Town, with a population of 3.7 million, has just a 100-day supply while waiting for its winter rainy season.  The last two years have been lowest on record for rain.  Alternative sources of supply will be costly.
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The problem with perovskite solar cells may finally have a solution.  Rapid degradation is the only thing keeping these cheap and flexible cells off the market.  A European research group has found a way to improve stability via application of nanotube film.  Complete success would give solar energy a huge shot in the arm.
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How to address the misconceptions of climate change deniers.  This prize-winning online course, which has been offered by the University of Queensland for the past two years, is again available, free of charge, starting March 21st.
Carl

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