Climate science. ” What would happen to the climate if we stopped emitting greenhouse gases today?” The explanation that is given, mostly about what is known as thermal inertia, is nothing new. Here is a quick answer to the question: “So even if carbon emissions stopped completely right now, as the oceans catch up with the atmosphere, the Earth’s temperature would rise about another 1.1F (0.6C).” That is some 70% greater than the total rise so far, of 0.85C since 1880. Today’s figure is often called a “transient” marker, the later one, 1.45C, as “equilibrium.” When you hear about a future 2C target, that should always be identified as either transient or equilibrium. If meant to be equilibrium, then, using the same 70% ratio, we are only allowed a rise of 1.2C on a transient basis. If 2C is only a transient marker we will have locked in 3.4C over forty more years once it has been achieved, assuming that emissions do come to a stop at that point. (A slowdown in the trajectory of emissions and temperature growth might reduce the potential for inertia and thus also reduce today’s 70% locked-in rate of gain to a lesser figure.)
http://phys.org/news/2014-12-climate-emitting-greenhouse-gases-today.html
http://phys.org/news/2014-12-climate-emitting-greenhouse-gases-today.html
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“A climate idea comes of age: Zero emissions ” (This story has made the rounds of today’s daily papers.) The idea itself is not at all new, but setting a target of zero emissions on a certain date, like 2050, is much stronger than setting a temperature target. That is because humans have total control over their own emissions, once they set their mind to it, unlike the fickle behavior of nature, which of course would still need to be monitored. So give the lady lots of credit if this change catches on,
Extra comment: What about the idea that quickly and completely phasing out all fossil fuels is so unrealistic it is hardly worth considering. Is that true? Yes, but for just one main reason. That reason is composed of the high level of opposition, which itself is composed from an aggregate of several different kinds of fears of a personal nature. If those fears were to magically vanish, and there was full agreement that zero emissions is a great idea, worthy of enthusiastic cooperation by all, it would happen—easily! And because the renewable alternative is viable and has fallen into our hands—just on time and almost magically—the transition by “tectonic shift” would not be as painful to living standards as it otherwise might have been. Unfortunately, the opposition is real, and the struggle will continue, with the outcome still uncertain.
Carl