In yesterday’s letter I hopefully found words that provide the clearest expression yet of an underlying theory about the principal cause behind the wild swings in daily temperature that we all experience. I don’t think anyone has done this before, at least not by using a similar set of factors and conditions that are involved in the explanation. That makes it potentially a “new idea,” unless someone else has thought of it and never put it in writing for publication. These online letter posts are not exactly a standard kind of medium for publication of new ideas, but I am a very old man and I just don’t have the time or the energy to publish in a more regular way. Besides, this is still a work in progress, with yet more pieces to be added and better terminology created for extra clarity. I plan to be doing so right here, turning the letter into more of a journal with a serial nature as opposed to what it was before. I hope the older readers understand and appreciate the reasons for change. And I hope there will be new readers who are attracted to the altered content.
This idea is being presented not just as a theory but as a theory based on making certain useful discoveries about the way things work in the natural world but have not been previously disclosed. Such a claim immediately gives rise to questions about whether it is all true. In that regard I can only say that personally I find the picture compelling, as well as exciting, and possibly an important addition to knowledge, which is why I intend to keep staying the course. Will other people, including true scientists, become convinced to the same degree, and ultimately adopt it into the standard canon? That normally requires a long and arduous vetting process, if not a quick death. No matter. I tend to feel optimistic for the simple reason that there isn’t much to choose from in the way competing theories about the particular effect under review, namely, wild, short-term swings of many degrees in surface air temperatures..
Let’s put this in perspective, starting with some basic knowledge. Where I live, in an almost exactly middle latitude, the temperature difference between day and night, or the daily high and low, for any day, during any month of the year, will always average out at close to 20F, or about 11 C. There is a little bit of seasonal expansion and contraction that extends the range by a very few degrees, thus limiting length of day to a status that is not too meaningful as a factor. That 20F range can be said to effectively represent the “on and off” power of sunlight alone at my location and many others like it over any period of 24 hours, realized as an average, after excluding the total of all other factors or adjustments that cause the range of actual figures for any one day to be either higher or lower than 20F. Many of those factors have to do with ways solar energy interacts with the physical substances that make up the surface and its atmosphere, a good part of which is what we call weather. The interesting thing is that the direct warming effect of solar energy, expressed here as a range of 20F/11C between day and night, is actually the lesser part of totals that add up to even bigger numbers. For instance, again taking where I live, daily ranges of 40F or 22C are not at all unusual, and there are occasions I can remember when the total range over just a very few days ran as high as 60F/33C, or even more than that on rare occasions. Something really big would be required to cause such widened spreads, with the amount of direct incoming sunlight as usual not at all a factor, leaving some sort of powerful activity or combination of such on the surface that can be superimposed on the sun’s power to such a remarkable extent. We certainly want to know everything we can about that activity because it always has an effect on our everyday life, and beyond that leaves us wondering about possible futures.
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Carl