The state of our current understanding of future sea level rise (Wiley Online Library). This new study has a single author, a person who I believe is well-qualified to take on a role of properly evaluating all sorts of ideas that lead to very few conclusions worthy of much confidence. One observation that appears to be well-established, and worth highlighting, is that the heat content of the oceans, in response to the current state of global warming, is only about half of what should be expected in the future upon realizing complete equilibrium. “Nonetheless, studies suggest that a degree (Celsius) of ocean warming results in approximately 0.4 m (0.20–0.63 m) SLR over multi‐millennial timescales (Levermann et al., 2013). Observational data, by contrast, show that only 0.1–0.3 m SLR per degree ocean warming has taken place since 1955 (Levitus et al., 2012), suggesting that an equilibrium response is yet to be reached.” That means substantial added ocean heat buildup, along with its numerous consequences, will continue for a very long time after we have succeeded in stabilizing greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere. Prevention would require an actual lowering of current levels in the atmosphere by processes of removal.
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Here is an image of where we are today with reference to sea surface temperatures, viewed as anomalies from a baseline average period set at three and one-half decades ago. The average gain of 0.3C is roughly half of the gain for land surfaces for this period. Also note how large the difference is between the two hemispheres. Meltwater from the ice sheets in both polar regions appears to be having a beneficial cooling effect on nearby ocean surfaces, something that could temporarily increase before finally disappearing in the long run.
A new analysis describes the importance of wetlands as a source of methane emissions when global temperatures are warming (Phys.org). “A team of researchers at the European Commission Joint Research Centre, in Italy has found that if global warming is not curbed by 2100, methane emissions from the world’s wetlands could increase by 50% to 80%…..the amount of methane emitted by bog ecosystems is strongly related to air temperature, the depth of the water and the unique characteristics of organic substances they contain. Prior research has also shown that all three characteristics are impacted by warming temperatures.” Wetlands tend to absorb CO2 and then process the carbon into CH4 prior to emission. “Because of the multiple feedbacks between climate and the drivers of CH4 emissions, wetlands have the potential to substantially amplify human-induced climate change and are therefore ecosystems of major concern for prediction of future climate trajectories.” This work could potentially alter the way climate models describe future warming pathways, including a small addition to expected.temperature gains in this century. https://phys.org/news/2020-04-global-methane-emissions-wetlands-percent.html ——The full report has open access: https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/15/eaay4444
Plans are advancing toward conversion of the primary global shipping industry fuel source to hydrogen from dirty bunker oil (The Driven). “Swiss-Swedish electronic manufacturing giant ABB has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with French hydrogen technologies specialist Hydrogène de France to jointly manufacture megawatt-scale hydrogen fuel cell systems for ocean-going vessels…..the global shipping industry – accounting for 2.5% of the world’s total greenhouse gas emissions – is under increasing pressure to similarly transition to more sustainable power sources…..HDF is very excited to cooperate with ABB to assemble and produce megawatt-scale fuel cell systems for the marine market based on Ballard technology.” These are real production plans, not just pie in the sky. https://thedriven.io/2020/04/13/abb-moves-step-closer-to-megawatt-scale-fuel-cells-for-ships/
