Atmospheric CO2 update—go to https://www.2degreesinstitute.org/#how—and scroll down to the lower chart. The growth curve in concentration normally slows down during February and March, while daily readings become unusually scattered, and this year has been no exception to the rule. What normally follows is a fast sprint from early April to a peak around the middle of May, a shift that has again begun, right on course. The last batch of numbers you see, at 415-416 ppm, are running a full three parts higher than a similar batch seen last year in the first week of April, suggesting that the final peak might have a similar relationship to the peak reached last year in May. The 2019 peak was itself 3 ppm above the one in 2018. Now go to the upper chart and uncheck the CO2 display box, leaving just the long-term central trendline. The basic pattern of acceleration has simply not stopped one bit, maybe even adding some to the pace, sadly happening more than four years after the signing of the Paris Agreement. We’ll soon be seeing what effect the virus might have, probably lower by most counts, and then whether or not any improvement is only temporary. On that score:
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A look at possible changes in the way people live and work that could benefit the emissions trend after the virus is gone. (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists). The author has interesting ideas about realistic possibilities that could easily happen in a natural way. “Among the changes that have come in the wake of COVID-19 that could stick around are increased remote working, expanding e-commerce, and shrinking supply chains. Each of them, if they become permanent, could make a substantial contribution to the reduction of global carbon emissions. Let’s look at each one in turn.” I think she makes a good case.
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A clear explanation of how ozone holes are formed and what they mean to us, along with some news (nature). The news is that a very large hole recently formed over the Arctic but the author does not think it is something to worry about. The report has lots of information for anyone who is curious about this kind of phenomenon, which is both weather-related and known to be dangerous the way it works in the southern polar region.
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A new study describes the importance of Northern peatlands as a carbon sink, and why the sink is endangered (University of Eastern Finland). “According to the researchers, peatlands will remain carbon sinks until the end of this century, but their sink capacity will be substantially reduced after 2050, if the climate warms significantly…..Despite only covering around 3% of the Earth’s surface, peatlands contain roughly a fifth of its soil carbon. In Europe, these ecosystems store five times more CO2 than forests.” Most stories about peatland focus on human activity that destroys those that are already in existence. This study is only about the fact that new peatland additions are continually being formed, which is to our great benefit, even while temperatures are slowly warming, but the benefit is being threatened by continuation of the excessive degree of warming now underway.
–The study has open access and is worth a good look to get the key details:
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Solid evidence has been obtained linking climate disasters to the onset of violent conflicts (Science Direct). Theories to that effect have been around for a long time but never properly established by data. These researchers have now delivered an abundance of proof. “By combining statistical approaches with systematic evidence from QCA and qualitative case studies in an innovative multi-method research design, we show that climate-related disasters increase the risk of armed conflict onset.” The link is to their full study, written in plain language.
Carl