Climate Letter #723

Posted on August 16, 2016 by Carl Campbell
July was the hottest month ever recorded.  That’s partly just because of it being midsummer in the Northern Hemisphere, where most of the land sits.  Then add the tail-end effects of a major El Nino on top of a general trend of global warming from greenhouse gas concentration.  Based on NASA’s scale, if the full El Nino effect is set aside we are left with a July that was 1.1C above its pre-industrial norm.  Looking just at recent times, that number is consistent with the existing upward trend at a rate of 0.2C per decade in effect since the early 1970s.  I believe the full year 2016 will have similar results, meaning we are on course for a normalized global reading of plus-1.5C in just two more decades, or by 2036.  (That would require the upward pathway to remain linear, which is far from certain.)

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A new reason for expecting a faster warmup.  There is new research providing evidence that low-level cloud cover is becoming thinner in the tropics as a result of rising temperatures, allowing more solar radiation to pass through.  This would be a previously unrecognized positive feedback, apparently important enough to cause an upward tilt for climate sensitivity estimates and thus the timing of all future mitigation plans.  The finding was generated by analysis of satellite data taken over a 15-year period.  Something this important will get a hard look, and I would not dare to guess the outcome, but see it as ominous.
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Big cyclone reported in the Arctic.  It could make a difference in the final outcome for the summer decline in sea ice, but probably not enough to break the 2012 record low.  This post is from a very popular blog, which has a wide following among people who recognize the importance of the spiraling downtrend.
Here you can get a glimpse of the cyclone on the Reanalyzer website.  While you are there, check out the surface wind picture globally, which is broadly active right now.  Notice how all of the most intense winds are over water, almost always the case.
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A new report from Bill McKibben, as published by the New Republic.  This veteran activist knows all there is to know about global warming and how humans have dithered in response to it.  Bill had considerable input in construction of the Democratic Party platform, which ended up calling for full mobilization with wartime equivalence.  That was a first, by a wide margin, for any political party, but has not yet gathered much attention.  This article provides the extensive rationale for promoting such a policy.
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What do Millenials think about climate change?  According to this poll taken by USA TODAY Millenials favor Clinton over Trump by a wide margin.  This post has a list of their priorities, which are quite numerous and excite passion.  Climate change did not make the list.
Carl

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