Climate Letter #720

A history of Arctic sea ice extent, going back to 1850.  With no satellite data in hand until 1979, a lot of detective work was needed to provide a credible record of what the earlier years were like.  The main conclusion is that the recent trend of events, including record lows, is unprecedented.

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A look at global temperature records since 1850.  This chart is based on data provided by Britain’s Hadley Centre, using a baseline made of the average for all of 1850-1900, which is very close to “pre-industrial.”  Note that 2016 is represented by just a 6-month average, a number that is likely to back off a bit over the full year.  Next year has the potential for a large drop but that would most likely require a deep La Nina, which is being given a 50/50 chance.  For an analogy, look at the temperature declines that followed the strong El Nino events of 1877-78, 1914-15, 1972-73 and especially 1997-98.
An excellent chart of all El Nino and La Nina events since 1950 can be found at http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
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A global catalog of threats to wildlife.  This expands on a story in yesterday’s Climate Letter.  The study places the threats in ten categories, which can be ranked, with Climate Change currently in the seventh spot.  All of these threats are in urgent need of being controlled, and it is not hard to perceive a need in every case for some type of coordinated international cooperation, preferably enforceable, if real headway is to be made.
Primates, other than humans, are generally located in areas having all of the above plus above-average risk from climate change:
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Scotland proves a point, with a bit of unwanted help.  The country produced every bit of its electricity consumption for a full day from wind power, thanks to gale-force wind speeds that were otherwise damaging.  There is obviously an opportunity to get the same result consistently, although with less trauma, by simply expanding, but that prospect is said to have been slowed by the recent Brexit event.
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A great idea for the upcoming presidential candidate debates.  Have one that is devoted exclusively to issues of a scientific nature.  This post includes a list of twenty topics that could be introduced, as conceived by the Washington Post.  Also one to add—by what standards are government officials justified in making a determination that widely accepted scientific knowledge is in fact a hoax, and should be disregarded?
Carl

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