Some more thoughts related to the new Eocene study, where one thing in particular stands out. First, remember that this is the work of climate scientists who specialize in Earth Systems, part of a minority group having a distinctive viewpoint toward future events. All but one of the authors are closely associated at the University of Utrecht, and affiliated with the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre. The lead author is a new PhD, while the others are veterans having plenty of publications on record. One of these, Henk A. Djikstra, principal mentor of the lead author, is himself the author of four textbooks and hundreds of publications that have been cited over 9000 times. One can feel comfortable about the quality of this work, and should have no hesitation toward taking its content seriously. That would include every climate scientist who is not up-to-date on how coming changes in the Earth system are likely to revise everything they have been taught in the more traditional curricula.
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What stands out is something I mentioned in yesterday’s letter, the information about changes in geography, or orography as some would call it, that are expected to accompany the melting of the great ice sheets. This is a one-time thing, and, while it could have happened before, the only such event in all of Earth’s history that we are able to closely inspect—in reverse mode, with a modicum of confidence—is the event that starts in the late Eocene. What we are seeing is that the global air temperature changes that go hand-in-hand with this degree of melting are not only of high magnitude, but heavily weighted by an unusual and unexpectedly powerful source. As predicted by current workers in the specialty of Earth Science, and not just those in the Netherlands, the strength of this source, if allowed to run its full course, is equal to twice the amount of warming foreseen from a single double of the two major greenhouse gases plus their usual feedbacks. That means about 6.3C versus 3.2C for a 9.5C total.
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What this report is therefore telling us is that a single double of those two gases, in combination with the naturally-added input of the unique secondary feedback from geography-related effects, is all that is required to create enough warming to fully take down the ice sheets if given enough time. While all of the timing factors are not well-known (they are much in need of future study) that simple fact, or conception if you will, by itself is scary. As we all know, one of the two gases (methane) has already more than doubled, and the second, which is past the half-way mark, is advancing on a pace that could reach a complete double well within the current century. That second one, carbon dioxide, while the stronger of the two, is also known to be the more difficult to remove from the air once it is in place.
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What is it that we want to know about the timing? The first thing that comes to mind is about when to expect the extra six degrees of warming, meaning those related to geography, to start kicking in, now that the melting has begun? The introduction should be very slow to begin with, probably not at all in this century, and there should not really be a strong acceleration until entering the final stages of collapse. But even a little bit of added warming along the way will give the process an extra push with some degree of quickening, and likely add to what we actually feel. Then how far off in the future should we be looking for the middle and later stages of acceleration, where we end up with all of the 9.5C of projected warming and all of the 240 feet of sea level approaching in concert? Science must not shy away from finding the answers. Scientists will somehow need to learn how to integrate the extra warming amplification with the rate of melting progress we otherwise attribute just to greenhouse gases.
Carl