Climate Letter #699

Some ocean currents are intensifying, with devastating effects.  Unlike the Gulf Stream, which is weakening, these are wind-driven currents, found on the western boundaries of several ocean bodies, that carry heat from the tropics toward either of the poles.  They have been found to now carry 20% more heat than they did fifty years ago, causing extraordinarily high air temperatures and intensified storms on adjacent lands along the way.  China and Japan are notably exposed and can expect a further worsening as the trend continues.  (This kind of information should have a profound influence on policy decisions in the countries most affected.)

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How different parts of the US have been warming, and what lies ahead.  This report is loaded with detailed information on both temperature and humidity for any specific location, going back to the 1970s.  A number of places are experiencing temperature increases each decade that are about double the global average.
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New research shows how the vegetation of the entire northern hemisphere has been greening over the past half century.  There is a clear record of change, and it could not have occurred without the extra amount of CO2 fertilization that has been introduced plus the longer growing season.  The greening has been of major help to other forms of life by reducing the net gain of CO2 left in the atmosphere, thus slowing the rate of climate change.  No predictions about how the future will evolve are included in this study.
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Under-ice algae provide much of the food required by marine animals in the Arctic Ocean.  The figures, which can be determined by carbon isotope analysis, are surprisingly high.  The ongoing decline in sea ice extent points toward a loss of nutrients that will somehow need to be replaced, a new way of showing just how fragile that ecosystem really is.
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A new study calculates the requirement for negative emissions imposed by terms and pledges of the Paris agreement.  As things now stand, in order to stay within the 2C goal, about 15 billion tons of CO2 will need to be removed from the atmosphere each year toward the end of the century.  That could only be eliminated by considerable strengthening of plans to reduce emissions in the first place (which could prove to be less costly.)  In fact, practical methods of sucking carbon from the atmosphere on such a large scale have yet to be demonstrated.
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How Donald Trump, if elected, would compare with other world leaders with respect to accepting or rejecting climate science.  The Sierra Club has investigated every known country, with this result:
Carl

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