An update on Arctic sea ice extent. There is a “race for the bottom” that is being closely watched, as 2016 has maintained a lead through the end of June. It is now in a virtual tie with 2012, and the two promise to stay locked for about the next 30 days. After that the odds must favor 2012 because of how it pulled away in August under the influence of abnormal cyclonic winds. I would bet on 2016 taking over the #2 spot at the bottom in September. The basic trend is of course unmistakable.
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Hispanic voters in the US are taking climate change more seriously than ever. A new poll shows the number of those having serious concerns being up 7 points in the past year, to 80 percent. Moreover, 54% say they will consider this a “deciding factor” in the way they vote, which is an unusually high number. The Republicans are trying to raise their profile with Hispanic voters and surely need to respond, but how? One way would be to show humility and do a 180 policy change. Another would be via promotion of an aggressive “reeducation program.” Any others? That’s what happens when you go charging down a blind alley—which in this case literally means blind to science.
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The Democrats also have a problem. According to the Christian Science Monitor there is substantial agreement over basic concerns, but a wide split over how aggressive the response should be. Different sides have lately been engaged in a struggle over how to word the party platform. For example, is it time to call out loud for a carbon tax, or would that lose votes? And what about fracking policy? Those who are more conservative apparently have the upper hand, but this is a uniquely interesting battle and we’ll soon see the result.
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What does it cost to capture CO2 directly from the air? A Canadian company, which has backing of Bill Gates, says it can do the job for about $100 per ton, a relatively low figure, and then convert the gas into liquid transportation fuel that can be sold for $4-6.00 per gallon. The equipment and methods are described in this post. Plenty of other companies have similar ambitions, which are indeed daunting.
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The outlook for concentrating solar thermal power (CSP). It has an advantage over photovoltaic generation because the heat energy that is produced can be stored 20 times more cheaply than electricity. The heat can then generate electricity in a fully controlled way over 24 hours. Development has lagged behind PV, but now China is showing great interest, making it likely that production costs will fall enough to ensure a competitive future. Joe Romm explains.
From a different perspective, large-scale solar generation by utilities for grid distribution is shown to have considerable economic advantages over independent rooftop systems, which is unlikely to change. There are still openings for intermediate, community-scale grids to be economically strong.
Carl