Climate Letter #693

A new study enlarges the risk of unmitigated long-term CO2 emissions growth.  It sees a warming result of 8C by the year 2300 if all of the remaining fossil fuel reserves are burned.  The modelling method will no doubt be challenged, but it may well have a chance of holding up.  Luckily, such an outcome is not going to happen, because humans will wake up to the dangers involved long before all those fuels are burned, and the burning will then come to a stop more quickly than we can now imagine.  A good question to think about is just when should we expect that wake-up event to be unwrapped?  It will probably require a set of catastrophes that are no longer tolerable, and have spread their effects to include most of the developed part of the world that does most of the emitting.  We are not quite at that point yet, but have gotten a good taste of the potential  damage with just plus-1C warming.  The intolerable stage ought to be in sight once we touch 1.5C, knowing then that another full degree is almost unavoidable, along with another 15-20 feet of sea level rise.  How soon will this be?  Not more than 20 years from now, maybe in as few as five to ten.

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A frightening forecast for the Amazon rainforest.  The annual hot and dry season starts in July and runs through October.  Trees are currently under stress in the wake of the harsh El Nino, making them more vulnerable to fire.  The forecast sees conditions not unlike those of 2005 and 2010 at this stage, both of which became years of record drought and fire.  In addition, the region has given up some of its usual ability to act as a sink for CO2 emissions.
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Why Antarctic sea ice has been expanding for years.  A new study offers a reasonable explanation, tied to natural cycles in the way the waters of the Pacific Ocean circulate over periods that are decades long.  It is likely that this cycle is now undergoing a reversal.  The observed expansion has provided one of the favorite arguments of the global warming denial crowd.
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A new procedure will significantly enhance the performance of conventional lithium-ion batteries.  The method, developed in Switzerland, is simple and cost-effective, applicable to all different sizes, and expected to be ready for products to be sold in just a year or two.  Storage capacity will be greatly extended and charging time reduced, which will almost certainly have a profound effect on the EV market in particular.
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A new discovery could dramatically boost the efficiency of perovskite solar cells.  Berkeley Lab is behind this one, which is a plus for credibility, using “photoconductive atomic force microscopy.”  The door is now open, with some additional development, for raising the efficiency of these cells from a current 22% all the way up to 31%.  (This story, and the one preceding, should both generate more than a little excitement.)
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A much better way to capture carbon from an industrial emissions stream has been discovered.  It is said to be four times more effective than other methods, also lower in cost and energy requirements.
Carl

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