Climate Letter #677

Some what-ifs about the future of climate emigration.  This work was done to show possibilities in a 2C world, rather than constituting a forecast, pointing out the need for a response in terms of early planning.  At least it succeeds in stimulating one’s imagination.  Moreover, one should remember that global warming does not necessarily have to stop at 2C.  There are plenty of scientific reminders that 3 or 4C could be in the works in the absence of dramatic moves to intervene, making the idea of future large migrations all the more credible.

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Scientists are learning more about how to link specific extreme weather events to the influence of climate change.  They do it with a bevy of fancy models, which on some occasions work perfectly and convincingly.  This was the case for those who studied the recent flooding around Paris.  Further improvements in this science are coming and will be of considerable value to society.
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How the demand for coal has fallen off a cliff.  The first chart in this post shows fifty years of coal’s history, including a rise to glory from 2000 to 2011—except for the two recession years—as China’s expansion went wild.  Since 2011 coal consumption has dropped like a rock, as best explained in the second chart.  A lot more good material follows, thanks to BP for the research.
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LA is getting ready to go 100% on renewable power by the year 2050.  There seems to be no opposition to moving forward aggressively, while at the same time encouraging a transition to electric vehicles.  It should set a great example for other large cities that may have the same underlying mentality to build upon.
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A new and better technology for sequestering CO2 that has been captured.  Natural processes that work underground in certain places will basically produce a new kind of limestone.  The method would apparently be cost competitive as well as relatively secure.  While not a final solution, it could be put to good use along with many other new ideas for converting CO2.
Carl

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