An important new study tells how the vital carbon sink provided by tropical forests has been weakening (University of Leeds). The study, published in the journal Nature, was conducted by nearly 100 institutions over a 30-year time period. “We show that peak carbon uptake into intact tropical forests occurred in the 1990s…..with carbon dioxide levels, temperature, drought, and forest dynamics being key…..Our modelling of these factors shows a long-term future decline in the African sink and that the Amazonian sink will continue to rapidly weaken, which we predict to become a carbon source in the mid-2030s…..Overall, intact tropical forests removed 17% of human-made carbon dioxide emissions in the 1990s, reduced to just 6% in the 2010s…..This is decades ahead of even the most pessimistic climate models.” (One must surmise that the rate of decline was most likely accelerated by activities reported in just the past year.)
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–The story is sure to get considerable publicity in the media. Here is how it was reported by The Guardian:
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Northern peatlands may also shift from being carbon sinks to sources, although the numbers are much smaller and better human control is possible. A new study, not well-publicized, has been published by Wiley Online Library. The good news is that peatlands generally remain persistent as carbon sinks if undisturbed, even when the climate is moderately warming, as they keep on burying more plant matter. Those that are not well-protected will fail in that regard and can quickly change into carbon sources as it comes out of storage.
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Scientists have documented how spring is arriving at earlier dates in different parts of the US, and explain why this is not a good idea (The Conversation). This story by a director of the USA National Phenology Network provides a summary of the information gathered through many recent studies. (As suggested by a story in yesterday’s Climate Letter, this looks like a prime example of where all of the countless species that are involved start processing permanent evolutionary changes in response, steering them toward a potentially catastrophic tipping point.)
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Should dams be built across the North Sea and English Channel for the protection of Europe against rising sea level? (Climate News Network). The idea has been proposed, and shown to be feasible. It must actually be given serious consideration because the costs are relatively low compared with the likely cost of damages if the seas rise by several meters and nothing is done. Tim Radford covers all the considerations very well in this report. “The best solution will always be the treatment of the cause: human-caused climate change…..However, if nations do not act to control the greenhouse gas emissions and forest destruction that cause global heating, and ever higher tides, then solutions such as the North European Enclosure Dam, known for short as NEED, are the only option.”
–Here is the earlier press release from The Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, which in turn provides full access to the original proposal: https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-02/rnif-adr022820.php
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Rolling Stone has published a thorough review, including some unbelievable illustrations, of the problems generated by the production of plastics and disposal of plastic waste. It includes this brief summary of how climate change is affected: “Global plastics production and incineration currently creates the CO2 pollution of 189 coal plants. By 2050, that’s expected to more than triple, to the equivalent of 615 coal plants. At that rate, plastics would hog about 15 percent of the world’s remaining ‘carbon budget,’ or what can be emitted without crossing the 2-degrees Celsius threshold in global temperature rise that scientists warn can trigger calamity.”
https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/plastic-problem-recycling-myth-big-oil-950957/
Carl